Learning from the Just Transition in Scotland
Transcript from a special Green Edge Podcast first posted on 20th March 2025.
The following is an edited transcript of our special Green Edge Podcast episode Just Saying, featuring Professor Dave Reay and first posted on 20th March 2025.
Introduction
Fraser Harper (FH)
Welcome to this special episode of the Green Edge podcast, introduced by me, Fraser Harper. Here on The Green Edge, we've talked with Professor Dave Reay a few times by now, and each time he's proved to be highly knowledgeable—as we would of course expect from the professor (since 2014) of Carbon Management and Education at the University of Edinburgh—as well as being an engaging and all-round decent chap. We've talked to Prof Reay in the past on a range of subjects, all close to our hearts and all in keeping with some of his myriad other roles, both past and present. For example, as Chair of the Implementation Steering Group of Scotland's Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan—a post he still holds—we heard from him about Scotland's progress in aligning the nation's skill system with its ambitious net zero targets. Another chair he held was the UK Climate Change Committee's Workforce and Skills Advisory Group, from which he produced a report in 2023 that set out the policy and provision of net zero skills for the whole of the UK, making recommendations for government on how to better support the entirety of the skills system in the transition to net zero. And as a former member of both the Green Jobs Task Force and the Green Jobs Delivery Group (task and finish group), we've talked with him in the past about the task force's recommendations in 2021 and some of the subsequent local capacity and capability work done for the previous Conservative government by the Delivery Group. Now, more recently, after reading his paper called The Uneven Foundations of a Just Transition for Workers: a UK Perspectives, and making it our Top Read for December 2024, we were keen to catch up with Dave again, to talk about another of his roles, this time as a co-chair of Scotland's Just Transition Commission. So, a few weeks ago, my colleague Dr Michael Cross and I got on a Zoom call with Professor Reay and started by asking him for a bit of background on this thing called Just Transition.
Origins of the Just Transition
Prof Dave Reay (DR)
The real origins of just transition as a term and many of its facets goes back to the 1980s and US trade unions, the labour movement there, and concerns around new legislation, around air quality, for instance, and protecting workers' livelihoods and rights. It's evolved and has grown massively in the intervening 40-odd years.
One of the things we've seen around the world is it appearing in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change discussions. A couple of years ago, it kind of gained enough momentum to have its own work programme. So, at COPS now, the last few COPS, Just Transition Pathways have been a discussion topic.
It's been one of those things, I guess, that as climate action more generally has shifted from, “we should be doing this” to “let's start doing it”, and that recognition has come through more strongly. Whether it's called just transition or something else, there are really serious equity risks with the transition in terms of those who are most marginalised being even more marginalised potentially by climate action, particularly mitigation policy.
Just Transition Commission in Scotland: Origins and Purpose
FH
Scotland's Just Transition Commission was established by the Scottish Government in 2019 to provide independent advice on how to ensure Scotland's transition to a net zero economy is fair and inclusive. The idea was rooted in the principle that economic and social justice must go hand in hand with climate action, ensuring that workers, communities and businesses affected by the transition are supported rather than left behind. The Commission's first iteration, from 2019 to 2021, focused on gathering evidence and making recommendations for embedding just transition principles into Scotland's climate policies. This led to the establishment of the current iteration, which was appointed in December 2021 and has an ongoing advisory role helping to shape government's strategies, including Scotland's just transition plans for key sectors like energy, transport and land use. Dave then told us a little more about how the current commission is set up.
DR
We're independent from government but all of us are appointed by the ministers in the Scottish Government and so we have me, as one of the co-chairs, and Satwat Rehman as the other co-chair, both appointed by the Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero. And then we have 20 commissioners.
Our key role is to scrutinise what they're doing on just transition, but also advise them across their climate action and policy portfolio in terms of how it can meet the just transition principles that the Scottish Government need to follow in terms of all of their climate action.
Another key part of our remit is about how we monitor and evaluate that progress. What metrics could be used? How to keep the Scottish Government’s feet to the fire in terms of just transition, rather than it being a kind of flash in the pan thing that's just forgotten?
So, a key part of our role is to be independent scrutinisers of what's going on, to give some real additionality in terms of what Scottish Government are doing.
FH
Dave's tenure with the Just Transition Commission started in September 2023. And in addition to the co-chairs and the commissioners, the commission also extends to representation by trade unions, NGOs and a range of experts in sectors like agriculture, the built environment and transport: all the really sticky issues for net zero.
And Prof Reay also gave an appreciative shout-out to the Commission's secretariat of three, which he told us do the work of a dozen, as secretariats in our experience often do.
Just Transition Commission in Scotland: Ways of Working
FH
A key part of the Commissioner's role is to go and speak to people who are living the transition and particularly those who are at the real sharp end.
Dave told us more about that.
DR
That's all about going to communities to hear about their lived experience of the transition and that's really powerful for us to help give a really good context to our advice and scrutiny. And it's something that the Scottish Government struggle with in terms of getting that people and place-based view of the just transition and some of the issues which are being experienced.
Over the past year, the Commission has worked with a range of communities across Scotland, some of them high profile, like Grangemouth, Shetland and Aberdeen, and some perhaps less so, like Dumfries and Galloway.
FH
So, what are the types of transition issues being faced by these communities?
DR
For some of them like Grangemouth there's an obvious one which is the refinery shutting down in a few months’ time unfortunately in terms of the impact on workers there. For others like Dumfries and Galloway was working with them on what the community is seeing as essentially a lack of voice.
Some of the big issues they are facing in terms of depopulation is a real issue in Dumfries and Galloway as it is in many parts of rural Scotland. Affordability of housing is another challenge, and there is also an issue about land use. So, often when we go to a place there are particular sectors which are opposing challenges, but often it's several sectors coming together. In the Dumfries and Galloway case, it was a kind of tension between wind energy but particularly there in terms of commercial forestry and the access of the community to the lands that surrounded them. The tensions that exist there in terms of “yes, we need more trees to sequester carbon but actually how is that being done, and is that being done in a just way”. When we went to Shetland, for instance, a big focus there was on Viking (which is this huge onshore wind farm in Shetland) so talking about that and how the community has benefited in the past from oil and gas and the transition to renewables—how is that working out? But as part of that, the peatlands that the wind turbines are being built on and the dynamics of peatland restoration and wind farm development, how they go together?
And, particularly for that community, actually, one of the biggest parts of Shetland economy is actually fisheries. So, talking to the fishers around Shetland about how they are interacting with offshore wind developments, the cables, etc. Here huge cables bring all that clean energy from Shetland to the mainland. But that has implications as well, potentially for crustaceans, so crab fisheries, for instance.
So, taking more of a systems view, is what we do when we go to a place. And every place we go to has different challenges, but there are commonalities as well. Depopulation in many areas, affordable housing, which we know is something across the piece in terms of the UK. But that's often a real pinch point in terms of being able to get people to stay in the area, but also the skilled workforce to deliver the transition in a fairer way.
Just Transition across the UK
FH
When we selected Professor Reay's paper a couple of months back as our top read, we did so because, in our opinion, it digs into the messy reality of change. In our covering post, we highlighted three examples: Steel production in Port Talbot, car manufacturing in Luton, and oil refining in Grangemouth, for which we're currently digesting the Project Willow report. All of which are seeing the shift towards a net-zero future, forcing businesses and workforces to adapt. and we opined that the UK's general approach to a just transition is somewhat of a patchwork quilt, which is how we do things in Britain, of course. Scotland is clearly motoring, in the just transition equivalent of an electric vehicle, but what about the other three nations?
DR
There's certainly not the equivalent in England. Northern Ireland is developing their own just transition commission, so we've talked to them a fair bit about our learnings and what's worked for us. The Republic of Ireland has a just transition commission which launched just late last year and again we talked a lot with them about our experiences, how they could be set up, and for good or bad, they followed us very much in terms of their format. So, they're our closest just transition commission to us in Scotland. In Wales, again, we've had some conversations with them in terms of how a just transition approach could fit with their policy development.
The conversation with the UK government has been really positive when we've spoken to them. We write to them because a lot of the key bits of advice we're giving to Scottish Government, the powers are reserved or certainly have a reserved element to them. So, we need to include UK Government in that.
And they've been open to talk to us, which is really good. And what we hear from Scottish Government likewise is they're having conversations which are really positive across the four nations.
FH
The reserved powers under devolution is where this all gets particularly messy, of course. While we might all agree that it's a no-brainer to have a single just-transition approach across the four nations, splashing cash to make it all happen in a coordinated way from different devolved pots in areas like skills development and the energy sector with all its connections could be described as being suboptimal to say the least.
So, does Professor Reay and the Commission's view of all this go beyond the boundaries of Scotland in terms of its supply chain impacts?
DR
Yes, it does. It's through the lens of what Scottish Government's devolved powers are largely. Certainly, things like Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, we flagged that it's really important for UK Government in particular, and to be aware about the just transition implications of that, and our relationship particularly with Europe.
So, our approach is normally to talk to Scottish Government and say, these are the kind of things you probably should be having conversations about in terms of your UK government counterparts.
Likewise, we have a thing in Scotland called the Climate Justice Fund, so that's very much focused on Global South nations, particularly in Africa, nations like Malawi. A small amount of money, relatively, but still significant in terms of Scotland for climate action, so particularly around adaptation.
We have a just transition fund likewise here in Scotland which is for domestic action on just transition, say, in the North-East. Here it's focused on Aberdeenshire and Aberdeen and that is something that the Scottish Government reports to us on in terms of what it's being spent on. That's something where we give reflections in terms of where we think it might have stronger just transition elements in those kinds of facets of Scottish Government work. Often when they're international, it does go through that UK lens because of that reserve power issue, particularly for things like our global climate commitments at COPS. That's a UK one with Scotland obviously being an important component.
Just Transition Commission in Scotland: Progress and Successes
FH
The Commission is entering its final year of this particular iteration, and is currently drafting its work plan for 2025-26. While what comes next is a little uncertain, we asked Dave about what he considered as some of the Commission's main achievements to date.
Firstly, he cited the Grangemouth Just Transition advice. The Commission played a key role in shaping the Scottish Government's Just Transition Plan for Grangemouth, engaging intensively with stakeholders, including industry, unions, local communities and colleges, to identify realistic, immediate actions rather than vague future aspirations.
Next, he described how the Commission has pushed for a stronger justice and fairness focus in Scotland's Third National Adaptation Plan, emphasising that climate impacts hit the most vulnerable hardest and ensuring the plan better considers the needs of marginalised groups.
And thirdly, the Commission has led efforts to create a world-leading framework for monitoring and evaluating just transition progress, moving beyond carbon metrics to track social impacts, skills development and economic equity. Its recommendations are now a key part of discussions on Scotland's upcoming climate change plan, with the hope that just transition targets will be embedded in future policy.
And, changes notwithstanding, the Commission still has a busy year ahead.
Just Transition Commission in Scotland: Current Workplan
DR
One of the key things we're doing this year is a major event in October, so in the run up to COP30. So, this will be probably in Edinburgh, I think, just so we can get the maximum number of people there to give a view of what we found, give a voice to many people that we've spoken to, to give the politicians of all colours the opportunity to say what they think. Obviously, at that stage, we will be getting into the run up to the election quite seriously in terms of what their manifesto is going to look like. Whoever forms the next government, whatever colour it is here in Scotland, are they serious about addressing inequality in terms of getting to net zero? So that event has got a lot to cram into it, but that will be a real showcase, I think, of the strength we have in Scotland, a lot of the great local initiatives which are delivering a just transition.
It will obviously highlight a lot of the shortcomings, and I have some massive concerns as do the rest of the Commission in terms of unjust transition which is happening. But hopefully it will provide a focus for all political parties and certainly those who form the next government to say what they're going to do and what they think about it.
Just Transition Commission in Scotland: A world leader?
FH
We've already heard how Scotland's Just Transition Commission came out of concepts and forerunners inspired by international models, particularly from trade union movements advocating for worker protections in climate transitions. We've also heard how the Commission plays a key role in holding the Scottish Government accountable, while ensuring that net zero policies benefit people across Scotland, particularly those in industries undergoing major change. So, who else in the global community is doing this sort of thing well?
DR
South Africa is a good example. In terms of the Presidential Climate Commission there, just transition is a major part of their work. And so, we talk to them quite a lot around the monitoring evaluation framework that they've developed and how that applies for us. North America has some good examples, particularly, I guess, in terms of the just transition about employment, going back to the 80s. I think what we're seeing increasingly is because of the COP process, so the Conference of the Parties in the last two iterations, so COP28 and COP29, just transition was an overt part of the agenda.
And in terms of working out what just transition pathways, how they would translate into national plans. And many of those now talk about just transition pathways. So about addressing inequality as part of their climate plans, particularly focused on employment and the workforce. It's something which, at the moment, I suppose if I had to pick the most progressed in the world, I'd have to pick Scotland, not just because of the Commission, but because it's been doing this for quite a while now, even before the Commission started. But I think if we look at what's happening in Ireland and that Commission, I think that will drive a lot of action in Ireland. And EU-wide, actually, just transition is huge. They have a just transition fund for the EU. which has been running for many years, and they get it in terms of the importance of this for their member states. If you took a block of countries, the EU would probably be your exemplar.
Just Transition Commission in Scotland: Personal learnings
FH
To finish, we asked Dave what he'd learnt from his time with the Commission.
DR
It's been a big realisation for me as a climate scientist for the last 30 years. I came into the Just Transition Commission still with the blinkers on, if I'm honest, about knowing the climate emergency needed to be addressed, knowing that our targets needed to be met, and we needed to cut emissions as fast as possible.
But a lot of that was based on what technologies do we use. What's the least cost in terms of the finances of decarbonisation? And, what the Just Transition Commission has done in terms of all the people we've heard from is remove those blinkers for me in terms of this cannot happen. Actually, we will not get to net zero unless we address inequalities as part of our climate change policies and wider policies and government actions.
And, actually, probably the biggest prize of the transition to net zero is ending up with a fairer society as well as a low carbon society.