Flying to Net Zero
Thus far, we haven’t written much about green aviation on The Green Edge. But a recent interview with Warren East, the (now retired) CEO of Rolls-Royce, got us looking.
We have wondered a little in the past why Jet Zero and Green Ships were grouped together as a single point on the Ten Point Plan. They do have some similarities, for sure, in the demands they serve. But the potential synergies between the two – before even considering the relative weight differences of what can be put on a ship versus what can fly into the air – seemed to us a little, shall we say, limited. Perhaps it was simply because Boris liked the snappiness of having ten points in his plan. After all, number eleven didn’t turn out too well for him.
When we look at last summer’s progress report from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) we do, however, find some similarities between aviation and shipping in that they both seem to be struggling with demand mitigation and management1
Policy progress for Aviation and Shipping. Image: TGE adapted from CCC Progress in reducing emissions: 2022 Report to Parliament (June 2022).
It’s noticeable that the delivery mechanisms and responsibilities for managing demand in both sectors were found to be wanting. For aviation, the CCC found ‘no commitment to manage airport capacity expansion or encourage consumers to shift away from aviation to lower-emission alternative forms of transport’. For shipping, ‘there is not yet a comprehensive strategy for how to manage demand’. Something for Mark Harper and his team to work on there, then.
Another aviation sector recommendation in the CCC progress report seems to get to the heart of matter. When it says there is a ‘[n]eed for further mechanisms to manage demand in the situation where technologies are not commercially available sufficiently quickly’ it opens the kimono to the fact that aviation – perhaps more than any other sector – is reliant on new technologies to get to Net Zero.
The UK was the first major aviation sector in the world to commit to Net Zero by 2050 and it underlined this pledge with interim decarbonisation targets of at least 15% by 2030 and 40% by 2040. This is highly ambitious, especially given the number of commercial aircraft in the sky is predicted to double in the next 20 years. By 2050, 10 billion passengers will fly every year. Covid-19 may have dented and delayed this growth, but as a recent article in the Guardian observed, engine flying hours - for Rolls-Royce at least - are back above 70% of pre-pandemic levels.
So, with high ambitions but without much action (yet) on the demand mitigation front, that brings technology centre-stage (as if it was anything else in aerospace) to bootstrap the industry towards Net Zero. And much work is going on. The minutes of the last meeting of the Jet Zero Council, hosted by Airbus at the Farnborough Airshow back in July 222, allowed the hosts to showcase their work on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and hydrogen as part of Airbus’ overall sustainability portfolio. Airbus is certainly talking big on hydrogen. Perhaps the flying wing concept will be the most complete solution in the long term, but in the interim, Airbus announced a hydrogen-powered fuel cell engine ‘is being considered as one of the potential solutions to equip its zero-emission aircraft that will enter service by 2035’.
But let’s not forget that there are still many technical hurdles to overcome with hydrogen, particularly where flight safety is concerned, alongside the challenges associated with commercialising green hydrogen. As Warren East, the recently-retired CEO of Rolls-Royce, was quoted as saying in the aforementioned Guardian piece, “We can’t, as a sector, wait for hydrogen. What if we got that wrong?” We learn from the same article that Rolls-Royce only employs about a dozen people directly on hydrogen.
So, the great white hope – for now, at least – is SAF. And certainly, it has a momentum behind it that goes beyond its catchy acronym. The Jet Zero Strategy, published in July 22, sets a target of 10% SAF in the UK aviation fuel mix by 2030. The Strategy goes further, beyond demand and into opportunity to supply, by committing to having at least five UK SAF plants under construction by 2025. Investing to become a world leader in SAF manufacturing carries risks of course. The Skidmore Report, possibly picking up from last year’s consultation on the SAF Mandate, recommends that ‘[since] an adequate price stability mechanism is vital for investments in SAF, government to set out evidence for barriers to SAF investments and options to address this’. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
In the meantime, SAF research appears to be growing like topsy. The University of Sheffield has just opened its Sustainable Aviation Fuels Innovation Centre, partially funded by the Northern Powerhouse. Then there’s the University of Nottingham, with its Green Chemicals Beacon investigating SAFs from biomass and its Synthetic Biology Research Centre engineering bacteria to recycle carbon waste into sustainable fuels. Plus many more; we mention these two here as examples.
But let’s not forget that SAFs are not the end game for clean aviation. For now, they work as drop-in fuels, interchangeable with kerosene and useable on today’s generation of aircraft with no - or at least minimal - modifications. In terms of CO2, the emission levels from SAF are pretty much the same as Jet A-1. But in whole lifecycle terms, given that they can be made from a whole range of different feedstocks, including algae and repurposed waste materials, they come out ahead.
Image: BP
But here’s our question: what does this all tell us about the changing skills landscape, especially green and sustainability skills? A few observations…
First, many academic, professional and technical disciplines are involved. Engineering, of course, of all flavours – even the Civils when we consider infrastructure - plus chemical, biochemical and biological; material science; and of course digital, not least for all the digital twinning that’s going on. Did we miss any? Almost certainly.
Second, there are the spatial impacts. Localised demands for new SAF manufacturing specialists might be one thing, but in the wider sense, the Government’s aspiration for zero emission routes within certain parts of the UK by 2030 could drive demand for pockets of alternate technical and operational skills, perhaps in areas that are currently poorly served. These could be related to, for example, maintaining electric and hybrid aircraft which have, to a degree, been around for some time. We note the first battery-powered commuter aircraft, Eviation’s Alice, is on track for certification by 2023, with hydrogen fuel cell-powered aircraft coming down the pipe.
Third, airports will change dramatically and skills across the board will need to adapt. New fuelling systems, including perhaps cryogenics, high pressure and battery charging, will be installed. Hydrogen logistics will need to be managed and operated. Airports may need to change their whole fuelling and operating models, with knock-on opportunities for economic regeneration in the hinterlands. We’re already seeing this happening on Teesside.
Finally – for now, at least – this all adds to the potential and opportunities for people crossing over from one Net Zero-chasing sector to another. We’ve already talked in past posts about crossovers from automotive to marine; automotive to aerospace might be an even more logical (and perhaps lucrative) hop. Not that we’re advocating this, mind you, but there must be some great learnings available from the folks at Mercedes who recently drove their Vision EQXX electric concept car 747 miles (1,202 km) from Stuttgart to Silverstone on a single charge.
One thing we can say with conviction, though. If success at going Net Zero were assessed by the eye candy opportunities for cool bits of kit, green aviation would win hands down. Take the Airbus A380 hydrogen fuel cell test bed or the aforementioned Eviation Alice, for example. Or, our favourite, the Rolls-Royce AE 2100-A turboprop engine converted in a world first to run on hydrogen. Now that’s pretty on an industrial scale!
Admittedly, the CCC Progress Report (June 22) was published before the Jet Zero Strategy (July 22). It will be interesting to see how aviation fares in the next CCC Progress Report we expect to see later this year.
We note that we have seen no further meetings of the Jet Zero Council (at least, minuted ones) since July 22. Another reflection of the turmoil in Government in the second half of last year, perhaps.