The Green Edge Top Reads – March 2025
The Green Edge Top Reads collection: a key points analysis of our top reads of the month.
Our March Top Reads span critical inflection points in the green transition—from workforce transformation and just transition planning to national strategy and the role of design in shaping systemic change. At one end of the spectrum, reports from Lightcast, Salesforce, and Nesta highlight the shifting skills landscape, with automation and AI driving demand for both digital fluency and deeply human capabilities. Meanwhile, Bainbridge’s prescient 1983 essay The Ironies of Automation resurfaces as a timely lens on the risks of over-reliance on tech. On the ground, Grangemouth emerges as a powerful case study in managed transition, with two reports detailing both the vision (Project Willow) and the fairness metrics needed to guide it. At the macro scale, the CCC’s Seventh Carbon Budget and the Tony Blair Institute’s industrial strategy blueprint both underline the policy urgency of long-term investment and credible delivery. Woven throughout is a call for coherence—across sectors, skill systems, and governance. The Design Council’s beautifully constructed eBook reinforces this message, reminding us that design isn’t a decorative afterthought but a central lever in building environmental and social value into everything from infrastructure to everyday experience. Together, these publications offer a multi-layered snapshot of what it will take to transition well.
Read The Green Edge’s take on these Top Reads and all the other publications we reviewed last month in The Green Edge Take.
Workforce Risk Outlook
Author/publisher: Cole Napper and Ron Hetrick, Lightcast
Publication Date: February 2025
Focus: Assesses talent shortages, skill mismatches, and labor market disruption across industries.
Category: Labour Market
Tags: Talent Gap, Skills Shortages, Job Automation, AI Adoption, Economic Resilience, Strategic Planning, Workforce Risk
Summary:
This report warns of a critical inflection point in global labor markets, marked by widespread skill mismatches, accelerating automation, and acute talent shortages. Drawing on data from industry surveys and labor forecasts, it identifies sector-specific vulnerabilities and stresses the urgency of reskilling, redeployment, and strategic workforce planning. The authors emphasize that current workforce risks are not just operational — they’re existential — and call for integrated, intelligence-driven approaches to building resilient organizations.
Key Findings
1 in 4 UK jobs (7.9 million) face high disruption risk from automation and AI.
Risk is concentrated in routine-heavy roles such as administration, retail, and transportation.
Women, ethnic minorities, and younger workers are disproportionately at risk due to occupational clustering.
Challenges Identified
Lack of retraining pathways for mid-career and vulnerable workers.
Misalignment between education provision and labour market needs.
Recommendations
Targeted investment in reskilling, particularly in health, green economy, and STEM.
Policy support to bridge geographic inequalities in job market exposure.
The Green Edge Take:
A novel approach to looking at skills and labour market risks that organisations face. It would be good to see this analysis dropped down into key industrial sectors (including net zero and green ones) and regions to see their levels of resilience. It follows that points of low resilience (high risk) might require some form of collective action with local and central government support.
Final Report of the Pissarides Review into the Future of Work and Wellbeing
Author/publisher: Institute for the Future of Work
Publication Date: 2025
Focus: Proposes a human-centred automation model that addresses socio-technical impacts of AI on jobs, wellbeing, and policy.
Category: Labour Market
Tags: Job Automation, AI Adoption, Skills-Based Hiring, Workforce Development, Wellbeing, Economic Inequality, Human-Centred Automation
Summary:
This landmark final report from the Pissarides Review challenges the conventional narrative of automation as a purely technological shift. Instead, it offers a multi-level analysis—systems, firms, and individuals—of how automation and AI intersect with wellbeing, inequality, and opportunity. It introduces a new framework centred on Good Work, combining foresight, participation, and capability-building to navigate disruption. With firms as key actors and regional disparities sharpening, the report calls for a coordinated, mission-led policy shift and investment in inclusive innovation infrastructure.
Key Findings
Work will be more hybrid, fragmented, and fluid by 2035.
Tasks—not jobs—are being automated, requiring skill reconfiguration rather than wholesale job loss.
Human capabilities like empathy, collaboration, and creativity remain resilient.
Future Outlook
Significant role for adaptive learning systems and modular training.
Platforms will mediate more work relationships—requiring new worker protections.
Recommendations
Foster human-machine complementarity in workforce planning.
Encourage lifelong learning ecosystems and certification innovation.
The Green Edge Take:
Outlines several key implications for skills development in a green, net-zero economy and society: integration of technical and social skills; urgency of lifelong learning and upskilling; development of green skills and capabilities; localised skills development initiatives; stronger business and government partnerships; expansion of digital and AI training for green jobs; policy and institutional support for workforce transitions; and worker wellbeing and equity considerations. Well worth a read.
Ironies of Automation
Author/publisher: Lisanne Bainbridge, Automatica
Publication Date: 1983
Focus: Explores the paradoxes of automation and the enduring role of human oversight in complex systems.
Category: Labour Market
Tags: Automation, Human Factors, System Design, AI Limitations, Safety, Cognitive Load
Summary:
This classic paper examines the unintended consequences of automation: as systems become more advanced, human roles become rarer—but also more critical and demanding. Bainbridge warns that humans are often left to intervene only in rare, high-stakes failures for which they are ill-prepared. The paper highlights the designer’s irony: replacing human operators while still relying on them to handle the situations automation can’t. Its insights remain foundational for human-centred AI and safe system design.
Key Points
Automation is often introduced to reduce human error but creates new errors due to over-reliance on machines.
As systems become more automated, the human role becomes monitoring—ironically requiring more skill.
True reliability demands balancing human oversight with appropriate automation, not replacing it.
Legacy Insight
A foundational critique of techno-solutionism, still highly relevant to today’s AI and automation debates.
The Green Edge Take:
A paper that has not aged and is still very relevant today, as it shows the power of automation to require higher levels of skills and wisdom. Worth reading alongside the AI studies of work degradation, displacement, and devaluation.
Project Willow: An Opportunity to Establish a Low-Carbon Manufacturing Hub at Grangemouth
Author/publisher: UK and Scottish Governments, Petroineos
Publication Date: March 2025
Focus: Proposes a portfolio of nine low-carbon projects to replace oil refining at Grangemouth.
Category: Devolution and Regional Development
Tags: Net Zero, Industrial Strategy, Green Manufacturing, Regional Development, Hydrogen, Bioeconomy, Grangemouth Transition
Summary:
Project Willow maps a viable future for the Grangemouth cluster through nine industrial-scale low-carbon projects. It combines technical feasibility, regional skills mapping, and economic modelling, and estimates a £3.5bn capital requirement to unlock up to 6Mtpa emissions reductions and 800+ jobs by 2040. Yet these projects remain “subeconomic” without policy intervention. The report makes a compelling case for strategic co-investment to deliver place-based climate resilience.
Highlights
Proposes a coordinated, low-carbon redevelopment plan for the Grangemouth refinery site.
Identifies nine major projects across hydrogen, biofuels, CCS, and circular manufacturing.
Estimates £3.5bn in investment potential and over 800 direct jobs in a low-carbon industrial cluster.
Challenges Identified
All proposed projects are currently sub-economic without public support.
Requires timely decisions on infrastructure (power, hydrogen, CO₂ transport) and regulatory clarity.
Risk of stranded assets and abrupt closure if planning and funding lag.
Recommendations
Designate Grangemouth as a Strategic Investment Zone to attract capital.
Develop an industrial strategy and skills plan specific to the site’s transition.
Provide co-investment, policy certainty, and accelerated infrastructure delivery.
Future Outlook
Offers a nationally significant test case for place-based, worker-centred just transition.
Emphasises urgency: “a transition by design, not disaster.”
The Green Edge Take:
At last the Project Willow report is now available and presents the future options for Grangemouth and the core technologies and products that could make up its future. This is a good example of how a transition could be planned for other sites and could become a template for other studies and plans across the UK. It covers both investment levels required, timelines and jobs generated and/or protected.
Assessing the Low-Carbon Transition at Grangemouth: A Case Study for Measuring Fairness
Author/publisher: University of Edinburgh & Tavistock Institute for the Just Transition Commission
Publication Date: March 2025
Focus: Applies Scotland’s Just Transition Theory of Change to evaluate local fairness at Grangemouth.
Category: Devolution and Regional Development
Tags: Just Transition, Place-Based Policy, Fairness Metrics, Community Engagement, Industrial Strategy, Governance, Transition Accountability
Summary:
Using Grangemouth as a live test case, this report adapts Scotland’s national just transition framework to the local level. It offers a detailed methodology for tracking outcomes across employment, inclusion, and institutional trust. The study also critiques current monitoring gaps and calls for stronger lines of accountability. Its toolkit for localisation is meant to inform broader M&E efforts nationally and internationally.
Key Findings
Grangemouth’s transition risks being unjust if local communities and workers are not central to planning.
Environmental burdens remain disproportionately borne by locals, especially in terms of air quality.
Recommendations
Adopt a multidimensional fairness framework (procedural, distributive, restorative).
Build mechanisms for local ownership and long-term place-based employment.
The Green Edge Take:
We see this is as another landmark report from the Just Transition Commission (JTC) in Scotland, producing important learnings about how to affect a just transition for all. Many communities across the UK are still recovering from the scars of previous economic changes and transitions (e.g. from coal, from steel making, from shipbuilding). It would be ideal if the JTC pulled together these learnings and share them in more than just its usual annual report.
Making UK Industrial Strategy Work: A Hard-Headed Approach Guided by Green Industry
Author/publisher: Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Publication Date: February 2025
Focus: Lays out a rigorous framework for prioritising sectors and reforming the UK’s industrial strategy.
Category: Devolution and Regional Development
Tags: Green Economy, Sector Planning, Governance Reform, Clean Tech, Investment Policy, Growth Strategy, Strategic Industrialism
Summary:
This heavyweight policy paper argues for a strategic, evidence-led industrial strategy focused on high-growth green sectors. Using green steel and electric vehicles as case studies, it critiques funding imbalances and outlines governance changes needed to avoid past mistakes. The authors call for a UK-specific approach amid global competition, and emphasise the complementary role of green services.
Key Findings
UK lacks a coherent, enduring industrial strategy, in contrast to peers like the US and EU.
Policy churn and underinvestment have undermined productivity and green growth.
Recommendations
Create an Industrial Strategy Council to provide long-term direction.
Prioritise foundational sectors (energy, digital, biotech) and regional manufacturing capacity.
Embed missions (e.g. net zero, clean growth) at the heart of UK industrial policy.
The Green Edge Take:
A positive, forward-looking report that looks out to 2050. Its findings are helpful: the green economy could grow from 0.8 per cent of GDP today to nearly 6 per cent by 2050 which would mean employment levels would hit 1.2mn (up from 200,000). And this employment would split between green manufacturing (425,000 jobs) and around 700,000 people employed in grey industries. It is clear the definition of the green economy differs between this study and the recent one by the CBI, which identified nearly 1mn employed today in the UK net zero and green economy. Let’s hope when the UK industrial strategy is published it recognises the current and future contribution of the green economy.
The Seventh Carbon Budget: Advice to Government
Author/publisher: Climate Change Committee (CCC)
Publication Date: February 2025
Focus: Recommends the UK’s 2038–2042 emissions limit and supporting delivery pathway.
Category: Pot Pourri
Tags: Carbon Budgets, Net Zero, Balanced Pathway, Climate Targets, Sector Planning, Climate Adaptation, Net Zero Budgeting
Summary:
The CCC recommends a 535 MtCO₂e cap for the 7th Carbon Budget, aligning with a 90% emissions cut by 2040. It outlines a ‘Balanced Pathway’ dependent on electrification, heat pump adoption, and strong policy signals. Household, sectoral, and regional responsibilities are spelled out, alongside investment needs. The Budget reflects increasing urgency but insists the goal remains achievable.
Key Findings
UK is not on track to meet 2038 carbon budget; policy gap has widened.
Emissions from agriculture, transport, and buildings remain stubbornly high.
Recommendations
Urgent policy reform in land use, diet, building retrofit, and EV infrastructure.
Greater investment in local government delivery capacity and cross-sector transition planning.
Future Outlook
Strong emphasis on just transition frameworks and participatory governance.
The Green Edge Take:
A critical document for the UK, covering the period 2038-2042 and making repeated call for a skills action plan for net zero. Here we hope the CCC is meaning a whole economy workforce plan including net zero. It also lists the four core actions for households to tackle, around EVs, home heating, travel (flying), and diet (less red meat and dairy). All of which call for a concerted engagement and education programme for all citizens.
The Grass is Greener on the Net Zero Side
Author/publisher: Resolution Foundation
Publication Date: February 2025
Focus: Explores how net zero can deliver better jobs, places, and productivity in the UK.
Category: Pot Pourri
Tags: Just Transition, Regional Growth, Labour Market, Net Zero Jobs, Public Investment, Productivity, Green Growth Dividend
Summary:
This report reframes the net zero transition as a productivity strategy. It identifies 1.7 million workers in high-carbon sectors and urges government to front-load clean infrastructure and skills investment to create better-quality jobs. By aligning fiscal, planning, and climate policy, the UK can unlock greener growth across lagging regions.
Key Findings
Green jobs offer higher job satisfaction and long-term resilience.
Net zero workforce growth is uneven across regions and demographics.
Recommendations
Target green skills investment in lagging regions and among underrepresented groups.
Centre equity in green industrial strategy, not as an afterthought.
The Green Edge Take:
Well worth a read after looking at the Seventh Carbon Budget. This commentary notes the real shift from power sector-led reductions to transport and buildings, taking in a range of difficult-to-change sectors and those requiring changes in everyone’s individual choices. What is not clear to us is the current UK Government’s model of change, and how they see the net zero transition actually happening.
Building a Skilled and Active Heat Pump Workforce
Author/publisher: Energy Systems Catapult & Heat Pump Association
Publication Date: March 2025
Focus: Assesses training gaps and workforce needs to meet UK heat pump deployment targets.
Category: Heat and Retrofit
Tags: Heat Pumps, Skills Gap, Installer Training, Net Zero Homes, Labour Shortage, Heat Pump Labour Pipeline
Summary:
To meet the 2028 target of 600,000 annual heat pump installations, over 41,000 full-time workers are needed—rising to 122,000 by 2035. Training rates are rising but installer activity remains low, with a 39% drop-off rate post-qualification. The sector must now convert qualifications into active, confident participation in the retrofit market.
Challenges Identified
Shortage of qualified installers and training routes for heat pump installation.
Diversity gaps in the workforce (gender, ethnicity, age).
Recommendations
Establish clear entry pathways into retrofit careers.
Invest in inclusive recruitment, mentoring, and local training centres.
Support employer engagement and curriculum reform to match future needs.
The Green Edge Take:
Despite the relatively low level of heat pump installations, the training of heat pump installers is developing well: 9,000 trained in 2024, and there is now in place around 260 UK-wide training locations with a capacity to train 30,000 installers. This is an interesting development, given the levels of demand for heat pump installations is still low.
The Environmental and Social Value of Design
Author/publisher: Design Council
Publication Date: 2025
Focus: Explores how design contributes to environmental sustainability and social well-being.
Category: Design
Tags: Design Economy, Environmental Impact, Social Value, Sustainability, Policy Recommendations, Sustainable Design Practices, Design Policy Integration
Summary:
This publication by the Design Council examines the pivotal role of design in fostering environmental sustainability and enhancing social value. It presents case studies and analyses demonstrating how thoughtful design can address pressing societal challenges, promote sustainable practices, and drive economic growth. The report advocates for integrating design principles into policy-making and business strategies to achieve holistic and sustainable outcomes.
Key Findings
Design is a critical enabler of sustainable, inclusive innovation across sectors.
Good design creates both environmental benefits (e.g. circular economy solutions) and social value (e.g. better health, inclusivity).
Recommendations
Embed design thinking in policy and investment decisions.
Support interdisciplinary design capabilities in education and workforce development.
Highlights
Includes UK and global case studies spanning product, service, and systemic design.
Emphasises measuring and evidencing design’s impact.
The Green Edge Take:
These surveys have been running since 2015 and they provide a detailed picture of the importance and impact of design across the whole economy—including, of course, the developing green economy and its move towards circularity. Excellent and well presented as we would expect. We hope it is taken up by all careers advisors.