The Green Edge Reports Roundup, Oct-23: Part Two - Sectors
Continuing with our selection of reports and other publications from this month’s reading list.
Part Two of our crop of green reports from this months reading list. Also see Part One - General.
As usual, you can find all these reports and more in our searchable reports list on The Green Edge Data Portal.
Energy
Batteries
Future Expert Needs in the Battery Sector
Fraunhofer ISI and ICT, March 2021.
A really helpful report that produces a number of lists of expert needs by time frame and potential periods to address the skills gaps and shortages. This report needs to read alongside the work of ALBATTS which has produced an industry-bought into set of skills profiles for the battery sector.
Carbon Capture and Storage
Direct air carbon capture and storage
Policy Brief, Fraunhofer ISI, January 2023.
One of the technologies which might make a breakthrough and might present real opportunities to the pioneering CCUS clusters emerging in the UK. Fraunhofer briefs are always good value (like those from the UK Catapult network) and it’s a good way to track progress and potential.
Carbon Dioxide Utilization Markets and Infrastructure: Status and Opportunities: A First Report
National Academies of Science, September 2023.
A detailed read, identifying two primary opportunities: the manufacturing of sustainable aviation fuels, and mineralisation (possibly for the construction industry). Highlights the likely location pattern of future CO2 businesses: access to clean electricity and clean hydrogen. This all fits with the current CCUS clusters in the UK.
Electricity Grids
Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. Enhancing the foundations of resilient, sustainable and affordable power systems
IEA, October 2023.
Several significant items strike us when we read this report. First is the scale and growth of investment in grid systems which is around 80mn kms of grid cables additions and refurbishments - this is the same as the current whole system. Within this, there is a huge growth in investment in digital (from 12% of the total investment in the grid in 2016 rising to 20% in 2022). Digital is making the grid truly green, and takes in embedded sensing, automation, and control, and automated real time optimisation in the short term. Longer term, digital also brings in enhanced design and predictive monitoring, and distributed generation and demand response. At the end of the report, the issues around the required workforce and skills are captured (pages 122-123) and these need to be front and centre of any net zero workforce plan. This has clearly now registered with the UK Government.
Engineering
Introduction to Wood Group
Wood Group, March 2023.
Much of the net zero transition will be managed by existing “traditional” business, often focused on high polluting industries. The Wood Group is strongly linked (and dependent) on oil and gas but looking in their current Investor Briefing Pack at page 21 we see the growth of the business into energy (renewables), materials (for net zero) and decarbonisation with huge growth rates e.g. hydrogen growing at 67% over 2022-25, CCUS growing at 29% over the same period. This beginning shift in the business, alongside its consultancy operation, means a skills shift for its 40,000 staff. Digging a little further we see a 20% increase in their sustainable solutions revenues (to $600mn with an order book of $6bn), and a vast experience in CCUS (175 studies completed) and hydrogen (130 plants designed and built). Clearly evidence that the net zero transition is good and big business!
Local energy generation
Proposed Changes to MCS: MCS response to scheme redevelopment consultation
MCS, October 2023.
MCS is an important part of the infrastructure in providing standards for local and domestic micro-generation schemes including the installation of heat pumps. This consultation was aimed at improving the service currently provided and strengthening the trust consumers can place in the installation network. Time will tell if this helps. From our point of view standards enforcing systems are also important part of the skills system as they capture the output of someone’s or an organisation’s work.
Offshore
Economic Report 2023: Unlocking our energy future
Offshore Energies UK, September 2023.
While oil and gas will continue to be a part of the UK’s energy needs, we learn here about wind, CCUS and hydrogen which should generate and sustain 100,000, 50,000, and 12,000 jobs respectively by 2030. We’d recommend reading this report alongside the work of the Energy Transition Institute at the Robert Gordon University.
Smart Meters
Data for Good: Smart Meter Data Access
Energy Systems Catapult, October 2023.
Now that the majority of UK homes have a smart meter, the opportunity is there to manage energy flows and usage in detail to match best tariffs and align supply and demand. Smart meters is a key part of making EV charging viable, the monitoring of assets, and optimising energy storage. Like many other parts of society, lakes of sensitive data need protocols and protection in order to allow them to be used for the good of all, and to allow new entrants to provide better services and products. It is opportunities like this that can create major commercial markets with significant international potential.
Wind
Floating offshore wind: Risks to project development – people, skills and vocations
Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult, June 2022.
Takes a particular view on the data for a 510MW project, and projects forward to 2040 and 2050 on the basis of the number of floating structures - 1,263 by 2040 (which means 7.5mn tonnes of steel) and 3,267 by 2050. At the high end by 2050 there could 32,000 jobs supported across the whole process. Note: in the 510MW case used in the initial modelling exercise shows 3’653 jobs of which only 225 are for operations and maintenance (6%) and these would be in place for around 30 years. This makes the point that there is a huge demand for construction capability to put in place the renewable energy structures we need for net zero by 2050.
Heat and Retrofitting
Environmental Sustainability Overview – Department for Education
National Audit Office, June 2023.
The Department for Education has a huge estate of schools, colleges and universities and is responsible for 37% of emissions from the public estate. We see its overall confidence in the delivery of its strategy (Figure 5, page 23) and its interesting distribution of activities (Figure 11) but there is no feeling of this huge retrofitting challenge becoming a major driver for technology (reducing costs, increasing standardisation) and skills (given the volume work). On skills, public procurement and projects are a huge training opportunity and one which could significantly help the UK develop its net zero transition retrofitting workforce.
Heat GB: Calculating the network costs for low carbon heating
Citizens Advice, October 2023.
This report is derived from one other report, Heating Homes in Different Regions of Great Britain: A Study on Locational Costs of Electricity and Gas Network Infrastructure, and seeks to help the UK Government make a series of “no regret decisions”. The conclusions are interesting: heat pumps and heat networks are two winning options, but hydrogen shows its face in some parts of the UK. For us this says knowing how these options play out regionally has a major skills implication. Both reports are accessible from the same link above.
Understanding what heat pump installers think about the sector
Nesta, October 2023.
This is a survey of heat pump installers across the UK and will provide key information to help shape policy thinking around both heat pump installation and also skills and training. It would be great to share this with others in the heat pump industry.
The Future of Heat Pumps
International Energy Agency, 2022.
A great review of heat pump technologies. Barriers remain around cost and skills where the IEA sees the need for four times the number of current installers by 2030. Useful for international context too as the UK is currently not installing the number or rate of heat pumps required to deliver on its net zero commitments.
Second National Infrastructure Assessment
National Infrastructure Commission, October 2023.
This assessment is much more than heat pumps, but it does contain some very useful points on heat pumps: the current heat pump grant scheme allocates £7,500 per household drawn from an annual fund of £150mn i.e. 20,000 heat pump installations (3.3% of the national annual target), whereas the NIC suggests there should be an annual fund of £1.3bn running to 2035 of lower-income households; a separate £3.2bn programme to install HP and improve energy efficiency across the public sector estate and all social housing; and thirdly, in a technical appendix on hydrogen heating which clearly shows hydrogen is not an option for domestic heating going forward.
Agriculture and Forestry
Seeing the wood for the trees: the contribution of the forestry and timber sectors of biodiversity and net zero goals
Environmental Audit Committee, July 2023.
While there is an understandable focus on trees and biodiversity, there is also a link between trees, timber, and construction. The lack of capable foresters is holding back tree planting but also the lack of timber expertise is holding back the use of wood in construction. This neatly illustrates the need for a systems approach to net zero as the plans for one sector are dependent on the action in another. To put forestry in context it is worth looking at work in Scotland on nature based jobs which takes us through the roles spread across six sectors: green finance, investing in nature based solutions, transforming land use and future rural support, urban green infrastructure and active travel, nature based tourism, and sustainable marine management.
Planting Trees in England
NAO, March 2022.
Behind every tree and every wood, there is an expert. While this report recognises the urgency of Defra and the Forestry Commission to progress their tree planting ambitions and the flaws of their approach, it does highlight the scarcity of the necessary forestry expertise. The size of the forestry expert group in England needs to grow from 100 in 2019 to 425 by 2025 in order to meet the tree planting targets. While these numbers are small when compared to the demands of heat pump installation targets, EV charging point installation targets, they are critical to the overall net zero transition. Our concern is that niche skill sets might get drowned out by the focus on the bigger occupation numbers.
Forestry Workforce Research
Forestry Skills Forum, August 2021.
Forestry is a growing sector, and put simply in England and Wales the workforce needs to grow from 1,662 (2019) to 3,012 by 2030. This sector is a microcosm of the wider land management, agriculture and nature workforce which also has to grow greatly over the next 5-10 years and by and large will have a steady growth, and does not have a temporary build-up like those net zero transition plans driven by major capital investment.
Construction and the Built Environment
RIBA’s manifesto for a better built environment
RIBA, October 2023.
A short, sharp document covering some major issues: climate action, housing and planning, building safety, and, creating an inclusive and growing profession. Interesting in that we are seeing more and more professions fully embracing both climate action and the specifics of the transition to net zero and then how their profession is central to delivering net zero. Architecture is key part of the design of the future and how it will operate.
Driving action on embodied carbon in buildings
RMI, September 2023.
Messages that really hit us reading through the 10 critical questions that need to be addressed regarding embodied carbon are the scale of the impact on the whole construction sector going forward, how it has to view materials (both existing and new), and how we handle existing buildings. What struck us though is how the issues being covered here are best absorbed into small works at the domestic level where mauch of construction operates.
The UK Trade Skills Index 2023. Assessment for Checkatrade of the future need for construction apprenticeships
Capital Economics, January 2023.
An annual report, this one highlighting the challenge: 937,000 recruits needed in construction over the next 10 years, and 244,000 apprenticeship completions (across 11 trades) over the period to 2032 i.e. 24,400 per year. This plays directly into the whole built environment decarbonisation and the capacity across the UK labour market to have enough skilled pairs of hands and heads to deliver on net zero. The forthcoming Net Zero Workforce Plan should provide some interesting conclusions, and proposed actions here given the scale of the demands appearing in study after study.
Energy Efficient Supply Chains
Southern Upland Partnership, 2023.
A great example of a local initiative and set of projects progressing the net zero transition. One of the current projects has two of its five goals focused on education and skills development to develop an energy efficient supply chain. We come across so many excellent local initiatives engaging people in making a truly sustainable future.
Circular Economy
Solutions for Stuff: Local authorities as enablers of change, making waste prevention happen
Suez, September 2023.
A really useful waste prevention guide highlighting the role of local authorities in the process, and described through case studies of schemes in Sussex, Northumberland, Oxfordshire, Norfolk, Swansea, Great Yarmouth, Somerset, Devon, and in Wales. Draws attention to the Repair Directory too where you can locate repair expertise. One thing we particularly liked about this report is the way the references are displayed, making them directly accessible to interested parties. If this area is of interest, it worth looking at other Suez publications, like The Stuff of Life.
The Government’s Resources and Waste Reforms for England
NAO, June 2023.
With waste generating 6% of CO2 emissions and being a £4.9bn activity for local authorities, there is a clear need for detailed, well executed policies and plans. Generally Defra doesn’t get a good report here, and the NAO finds that skills are a potential barrier to delivery of progress in this area.
Electric Vehicles
EV Techsafe Technician Forecasts
Institute of the Motor Industry, IMI Research, October 2023.
A really helpful set of quarterly forecasts which show right now that there are 45,300 EV Techsafe qualified technicians (20% in the UK). But the rate of certification is dropping back which starts to challenge meeting the requirements going forward to 2030 when 107,000 EV Techsafe qualified technicians will be needed, and this grows to 126,000 by 2032, and 185,000 by 2035. So, today’s demand is being met but there are major challenges ahead. It would be good to see these industry and occupation specific forecasts being collated centrally by Government as we have seen more and more being produced e.g. Halfords for EV technicians, Kingfisher (with CEBR) for key building trades, etc. Perhaps a role for the DfE’s Unit for Future Skills?
Finance
Disclosure Framework
Transition Plan Taskforce, October 2023.
We see this document as being very important (along with the detailed sector dives due in November), as using a common framework we will have many major companies laying down their path to net zero and what this means for their business and its customers. It is these maps that will provide policy makers at multiple levels with insight into the next 20+ years of the transition to net zero, and help shape our understanding of the skills required to make the transition a success. Putting these plans together with LSIPs, LAEPs, and the national net zero workforce plan should mean during 2024 we’ll be well placed to have a comprehensive view of skills, training and education for net zero.
Food industry
Discover Denmark’s resource-efficient industries
State of Green, October 2023.
A useful reminder that countries with long term, consistent policies become leaders. Here we see Denmark through the experience and progress of six case studies in the food industry. Through the skills lens, a long term and consistent approach goes a long way to aligning education and training behind a national direction and targets.
Reducing food loss: what grocery retailers and manufacturers can do
McKinsey and Co, September 2022.
Around 33-40% of food is wasted every year. Just let that sink in for a moment. This short paper discusses the issue and shows where waste occurs, and how it can be tackled. In terms of net zero, it makes great sense to make use of all produce and not to waste it along with its associated emissions, and requires traditional supply chain skills to tackle the issue. We presume these are green supply chain skills.
Transport
Becoming a Tech-Savvy DoT (Department of Transportation) of Tomorrow: A playbook for States
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2023.
A helpful playbook which helps in defining and strategically addressing the impacts of disruptive technologies on transportation outcomes. Net zero does show its face but there is so much more taking place across transportation driven by digital technologies and the internet. We think the approach adopted here could be applied to other sectors as the disruptive technologies reshaping transport are found in other sectors.