The Green Edge Reports Roundup, May-23
Continuing with our selection of reports and other publications from this month’s reading list.
Skills and Employment
The Future of Jobs Report 2023
World Economic Forum, April 2023
A report looking at future developments and trends based on a large-scale survey of over 800 employers with around 11mn employees . Environmental changes are a major driver for change.
A real directional report which highlights the vital importance of reskilling and upskilling for existing employees to proactively handle the churn in work content and tasks.
Green Skills Demand in Surrey and North/Mid Hampshire
WPI Economics and Lightcast for Surrey Chambers of Commerce and its LSIP, May 2023
An excellent example of an LSIP producing a baseline and future view of the green economy and green jobs. The reports raises a range of questions, all around “what next?” and how best to use research and data to develop focused interventions to support the net zero transition.
Sustainability Superpower UK
UK Business Council for Sustainable Development, May 2023
An interesting analysis that makes the distinction between ‘near net zero’ and ‘beyond net zero’. Our interest is in the employment implications: the difference is nearly 280,000 additional FTE between 2020-2050 (see page 16 of the report) where ‘near net zero’ requires 375,000 jobs versus ‘beyond net zero’ at 654,000 jobs. Well worth a read.
It’s really important that the UK Government clarifies its net zero strategy (alongside one for industry) and translates this into employment totals and jobs that will then shape the skills training levels required. A big task for the Green Jobs Delivery Group and its work on the net zero workforce strategy and plan due in 2024.
Industrial strategy: A manufacturing ambition
Make UK, May 2023
Highlights the green transition as a major driver for the future. Through our sklills lens, we see it giving strong coverage to skills as one of the five pillars of any industrial strategy, linked to UK industrial strategy, a UK growth plan, and progression towards net zero. Skills are seen as being the priority area for action in the UK by employers.
Turning the European Green Deal into Reality
Strategic Perspectives, May 2023
Highlights the twin themes of skills and quality jobs across economies that already employ in excess of 4.5mn people in green jobs. Makes a particular feature of the support required by fossil fuel workers (coal miners, refinery operators, etc.) during the transition. Historically Europe has handled these big transitions in a proactive way and the current green transition can be seen as another instance - except that the scale and rate of change required is larger, and the stakes are somewhat higher.
Qualifying for the race to net zero. How to solve the net zero skills challenge
Onward, Sep 2021
A useful macro-level analysis of skills for net zero. Charts out the territory well: for example, see Table 1: Qualifications required for typical net zero jobs in LCREE sectors; Figure 11: Proportion of jobs needing upskilling by industry (also see Table 7); and Table 4.5 which shows the proportion of jobs needing reskilling for net zero by constituency.
We see an interesting thesis here: we can’t forecast specific skills for net zero, but we can scope out the best core skills set on to which others can be quickly added. There’s another part to this, being a demand for high level skills (PhD level). This is the sort of policy type debate we need and one that should contribute to the overall UK net zero workforce skills plan.
Towards Net Zero: The implications of the transition to net zero emissions for the Engineering Construction Industry
Element Energy for the ECITB, Mar 2020
A useful analysis cutting across 20 technologies grouped by Hydrogen, CCS, Oil & Gas and Water & Waste, and Power. For each group, the report digs into the skills implications and the nature of the impact (see tables on pages 34-35). The approach used is both informative and impactful, and the LSIPs might find it worth a look to update these tables for their areas.
Managing the Transition
Public Attitudes towards Net Zero and Renewable Energy Sources
Cavendish Advocacy and Built Environmental Communications Group (BECG), Mar 2023
Seeing where public attitudes lie is very important, as it is the understanding and actions of citizens that will make the difference in getting to Net Zero. How do we take Net Zero actions for our homes, for instance? How do we change our cars from ICE to EV? There are quite a few others. Going forward, tracking these attitudes will be important and will probably have a spatial dimension too.
A path out of the gas crisis
Ember, Sep 2022
Can we make quicker progress to net zero? This report suggests the answer is “yes” and that we could also make significant savings, both financial and on emissions. It provides a useful check on the National Grid estimates as to the future profile of UK energy generation, which is a useful start when thinking about the skills mix and the development of the UK energy workforce.
Fossil Fuel Layoff: The Economic and Employment Effects of a Refinery Closure on Workers in the Bay Area
UC Berkeley Labor Center, April 2023
Over the coming years we will be facing a series of major closures and disruptions to the lives of many highly skilled employees, and so understanding how to best manage this process is important. The UK saw a host of studies like this in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and we need to revisit what we learnt then as to how best to support careers advice and guidance, and re- and upskilling programmes. Many of these transitions could well be handled within large corporations, but in other cases local communities will be severely impacted, and we need to be proactive to reduce the negative impacts.
Transport
Race to Zero: Powering up Britain’s EV supply chain
Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, Mar 2023
A brief up-to-date paper on the UK auto industry and its transition to a Net Zero world. Thankfully it doesn’t just focus on batteries for EVs but takes a more expansive view of green energy required by the whole supply chain. It would have been good to see this piece of work extended by dropping to the employment, jobs and skills levels.
Levelling Up & Regional Development
Open for Business. Unlocking investment in low-earning economies
Centre for Progressive Policy, May 2023
A fascinating study which identifies 95 ‘pockets of potential’ across 72 local authorities containing businesses of higher growth potential, which if invested in and supported could create a significant contribution to GDP. Looking at the listing of local authorities and the industry sub-sectors identified, we can’t see which are ‘green’ or ‘green contributing’ - this next level of analysis would have been useful from a net zero perspective. One of the major barriers to progress? Skills, of course, and the authors recommend greater support for adult education and a raise in the levels of participation.
Too late for the current LSIPs due for submission, but could be worth building in the analysis presented here into the first round of revisions.
How can devolution deliver regional growth in England?
Institute for Government, May 2023
Our interest in this one is twofold: first, Net Zero transition requiring local capability to handle multiple complex issues; and second, the need to have active management in matching skills demand to supply. This report covers this ground in a balanced way with skills being one of the main elements to be devolved, alongside transport, housing, spatial planning, social security and employment support, and R&D. On skills, the adult education budget needs to be devolved, alongside the application of the excess apprenticeship levy.
Levelling up, Emissions Down: Accelerating Net Zero Across the Key Cities and Levelling up, Emissions Down: Framework. A Framework to Support Key Cities to Accelerate Action Towards Net Zero.
Metro Dynamics and Opergy for Key Cities Network, May 2023
An extensive piece of work which picks up on skills and capacity requirements at local levels across the 27 cities that make up the Key Cities Network. Again, another key input to the devolution discussion and the delivery of Net Zero requiring further funding, capacity and delegation to local cities and authorities.
Net Zero North
N8 Research Partnership and the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, Sep 2021
This report doesn’t say too much about skills, but the Net Zero North (NzN) Skills Alliance is mentioned alongside the 422,000 jobs estimated to be created in the low-carbon economy of the North, together with the hubs for industry-linked doctoral training in Teesside (hydrogen) and at Eden North/Morecambe (Grow Smarter). We think it would be good to see similar estimates for other regions to be all brought together in one place.
Energy - Retrofit
Vaillant Installer Survey Report: Aspiring to a green future.
Vaillant, Apr 2023
A useful survey of 637 installers with preferences for training being in-person (and blended) and local, togheter with a willingness to invest. Contains messages the Government might like to pick up on and support installers - who are critical to heat pump installations - and FE colleges working with both installers and equipment manufacturers.
Cheaper Bills, Warmer Homes
The UK Homes Future-Fit Program, Sep 2022
We’ve come a little late to this excellent report, which shows how we can retrofit 23.5mn homes across the UK. It contains a detailed plan and also delves into skills and jobs: the analysis shows 25,000 new tradespeople are needed in Year 1, peaking to 260,000 in Year 4. Running alongside this, we find at least another 230,000 indirect trade jobs (see pages 50-52). We see this numbers split by carpenter, electrician, gas engineer, general builder and labourer, window fitter, renewable heat specialist, and retrofit co-ordinators - we’ve listed the full set of trades here as we hear a lot about only one or two, but not the rest. We think this plan is worth building on, perhaps into local versions.
All the things I could do: financing green home upgrades. Testing options to help home owners decarbonise.
Nesta, May 2023
This report isn’t about skills in the strictest sense, but is all about engaging the public in making key green investment decisions and creating real, lasting demand for retrofit upgrades. Talk to any FE College - as we do - and they will tell you that unless there is funding, regulation and tangible demand, then skills programmes are a waste of time. Work like this might really help in unlocking demand.
A Policy Toolkit for Global Mass Heat Pump Deployment
Regulatory Assistance Project, CLASP and Global Building Performance Network, Nov 2022
Certainly one for your bookshelf if you’re trying to grapple with the shift to using heat pumps across the UK. A real reference work.
Options for accelerating retrofit rates in the domestic owner occupier sector
Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, 2022
Just as we hunt for ways to accelerate retrofit rates in the UK (as this paper does), we need a parallel process for retrofit skills. A national approach would be helpful but we think we’re more likely to see schemes emerging at local levels, especially given the pressures building across the social housing sector.
Foresighting Skills for Net Zero Homes
Energy Systems Catapult for the Gatsby Charitable Foundation, 2021
This report uses a well-established approach to foresighting and finds a series of systems challenges such as quality, certification, and technology integration. It identifies a number of critical skills, including property assessment (retrofit assessors?), advice and customer care (but no mention of the role of community energy groups), low carbon heating installation (but nothing around deep retrofitting), and technology integration (retrofit co-ordinators?).
Energy - Distribution
Delivering for 2035: upgrading the grid for a secure, clean and affordable energy future
National Grid, May 2023
This report identifies skills as a barrier (again) and highlights the need for investment in training provision - even attracting inward investment - and the creation of a skills pipeline. Without an intelligent, high capacity grid actively managing demand and supply, Net Zero will be more costly for everyone. This is a timely statement, coming when the National Grid has been getting a bunch of criticism for the length of the renewable energy connections backlog.
Energy - Integration
Integrate to zero. Policies for on-site, on-road, on-grid distributed energy resource integration
Regulatory Assistance Project, May 2023
A fascinating and important paper about the flow of energy into and out of properties where the use of energy is being managed by reducing or delaying demand, and by ‘taking’ stored energy from across the grid to reduce demand on core supply. This is important in that it impacts how we retrofit our homes and attach them to the National Grid in an intelligent way for optimal energy usage. What isn’t clear to us, though, is how central this thinking is to overall energy security and Net Zero policy development. But it must have a profound impact on the energy generating capacity planned for the UK.
Energy - Hydrogen
Hydrogen and renewable energy act. Explanatory guide to the Bill.
Government of South Australia, 2023
We try to keep track on developments in parts of the world that are powering ahead with particular technologies or policies, and South Australia is certainly one place where renewables is now well established. This guide provides an insight into a process looking to speed up transition and the role of hydrogen. Here is a governmet bill that might well become relevant to the UK in the not-too-distant future.
The role of hydrogen in a net zero energy system
National Engineering Policy Centre of the Royal Academy of Engineering, Sep 2022
An excellent introduction to the role that hydrogen might - probably will - play in the UK energy system as a propellant and as a means of energy storage.
Considerations for refuelling station selection. Strategies for hydrogen mobility infrastructure.
Haskel and Ingersoll Rand, Sep 2021
We try to track work that helps us understand emerging technologies; this paper fits into this category around the use of hydrogen and its important role in heavy goods and public service vehicles. One for the file.
Clean Ammonia in the Future Energy Systems
Hydrogen Europe, March 2023
Useful background to the march of hydrogen towards playing an important role in the net zero energy system. Nothing directly on skills but helps in understanding hydrogen’s continuing potential.
Labour Market
Time to Learn: Increasing Participation in Learning.
Learning and Work Institute, May 2023
This report captures the results of a survey, one finding being that people invest £7.3bn of cash and £55bn of time each year in learning. Big numbers - in fact, larger than the total investment made by employers (£42bn) and the Government (£6.8bn). Could self-invested learning be an important solution to the greening of people’s jobs? This report doesn’t help in answering that question but it is one worth exploring as it could be a key part of boosting skills pools to support the transition to net zero.
The Future of Working is Learning
Cedefop, 2023
If you want to learn about future trends shaping vocational education and training and apprenticeships, take a look at this report. You will also find references to Cedefop’s Green Observatory, Skills Forecast, and the Skills-OVATE database. We think we don’t see enough use of these European resources: this might open a few doors for you.
Developing Workforce Skills for a Strong Economy
House of Commons Committee of Public Accounts HC 685, Dec 2022
A stinging attack on the DfE and its lack of scale and impact for (largely) adult training and re-training to cope with the EU exit and the looming Net Zero challenges. Challenges DfE to produce a fit-for-purpose, evidence-based plan by June 2023. This will be worth looking out for.
Labour Market Outlook: Views from Employers.
Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, Spring 2023
A general view of the UK labour market. In our view, it would be good to add a green theme in subsequent issues, or at least group the sectors to denote their ‘level of greenness’.
No quick wins: More jobs but little productivity in the Eurozone.
Allianz Research, May 2023
A useful current overview, into which to place the specific developments across all labour markets around digital, green and overall capacity.
Sector - Steel
Green steel premium: myth or reality?
ReTHINK Energy, Mar 2023
Yes, green steel is on the march and costs are falling, and this is being accelerated by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) subsidies for hydrogen making the USA the cost leader and setter. A new baseline global price for steel is being set and is one the UK steel producers will need to match if they are to survive and prosper.
Transport - Aviation
Net Zero Carbon Road-Map
Sustainable Aviation, April 2023
Roadmaps are always useful to see the balance of factors being developed and implemented to achieve a net zero position. This one for aviation is a good example. Roadmaps like this one allow manpower and skills issues to be plotted and planned for, and this would make a useful addition to the next version.
Transport - EV
The UK’s Second-Hand Electric Vehicle Market
Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, February 2023
Reading this short note we were thinking: could unlocking the power of the second-hand car market in the UK be the real tipping point for EV sales? This report makes some suggestions of how this might happen. But here’s a thing - if that is the case and we have a rapid rise in EV ownership, this would give us a significant challenge on the skills front.
General
Accelerate Annual Outcomes and Outlook Report
Project Drawdown, Apr 2023
A project well worth following. From our point of view we we were impressed by a series of excellent images and infographics linking climate challenges and interventions to the skills required.