The Green Edge Reports Roundup, Mar-24: Part One - General
Continuing with our selection of reports and other publications from this month’s reading list.
Again this month, we’re splitting our reading list into two posts. This one covers general categories. For Sectors, see Part Two.
As usual, you can find all these reports and more in our searchable reports list on The Green Edge Data Portal.
֎ Reports we feel are particularly worth a look.
Skills
֎ Experimental estimates of green jobs, UK: 2024
ONS, March 2024.
One measure of progress with the development of the green economy and the transition to net zero is the number of green jobs. The period covered here is 2015 to 2022, and we see here the numbers employed go from 515,000 to 639,000. If the growth rate has been maintained during 2023 and into 2024, we’d expect the total employment to be hitting 700,000. Let’s see. There are few apparent anomalies here, but this could well be the way the data generated. Overall, a valuable source of data.
֎Skills Demand for the Future Economy 2023-24
Skills Future Singapore, November 2023.
This is a great report and a model for others to follow. It covers the priority skills in three future economies of Singapore: green, digital and care. The section on priority skills in the green economy focuses on both demand growth and the levels of transferability (moderate and high). The priority skills that come out strongly are in environment and social governance, carbon footprint management, sustainability management, energy management and audit, and sustainable engineering. In all, 46 skillsets are highlighted. The report offers three key insights: green skills growth has been consistent in the last two years, with high demand in emerging areas like agrifood, sustainable finance and carbon management; three highly transferable green skills across sectors and job roles are seeing high growth momentum (environment and social governance, carbon footprint management, sustainable manufacturing); and, compliance requirements pushed demand for skills in sustainable finance, carbon management, decarbonisation, and sustainability risk management. We hope the approach used in Singapore is adopted here. For wider context, we also recommend a look at the Green Plan for Singapore.
The Enginuity Skills Action Plan for the Engineering and Manufacturing Sector – A Manifesto for Change
Enginuity, 2024.
Skills have moved up the political agenda with the realisation that we have several major challenges ahead due to the transition to net zero, the all-pervasive wave of digitalisation, severe demographic shifts (including immigration), etc. Here we see the centrality of engineers to the future of the UK economy and society and the need for a few key actions: skilling of all forms; attraction of talent; a flexible and responsive skills system; and the better use of funding. Good to read alongside Revitalising America's Manufacturing Workforce which has three focal areas of equip with skills, broaden access, and spark interest, all supported by three principles of data (informed robust decisions), diversity and equity, and local impact (partners to ensure local delivery of a national imperative).
Apprenticeship achievements: An update for the sector
DfE, March 2024.
A brief update, and the Top 10 list of completions is interesting but disappointing to us as there are no engineering or manufacturing standards in the list, nor anything that relates to sustainability. But, it is good to see progress is being made and standards now dominate (rather than frameworks).
Labour’s Manifesto
Cavendish Consulting, March 2024.
We’ll be looking at each manifesto as they are published. Here is Labour’s through the editorial eyes of Cavendish Consulting, which takes us through Labour’s five missions, one of which is skills. Here the pickings are meagre (more to follow we hope), with three items listed: the formation of Skills England (sounds a little like UKCES of old); changes of the apprenticeship levy changing to a growth and skills levy; and finally, FE Colleges morphing into Technical Excellence Colleges. We’d like to see these three linked to both the development and growth of the economy and productivity improvement, innovation and the green economy.
What drives workers’ participation in digital skills training? Evidence from Cedefop’s Second European Skills and Jobs Survey
Cedefop, 2024.
Useful briefing note looking at digital skills gaps and matching drawing on data from 46,000 people. One we’d like to see repeated for green, net zero and sustainable related skills clusters.
Labour Market
Greater Manchester Mayoral Elections Manifesto 2024. Unlocking a skills revolution in Greater Manchester
Greater Manchester Colleges and AoC, March 2024.
With the May Mayoral Election campaigns starting, we are seeing a few lobbying groups make their cases, and for skills here is one for Manchester. There are four major proposals which make good sense to us: ensure consistent funding for capital and programmes supported by data and co-ordination. The colleges across Greater Manchester have 70,000 students (30,000 11 to 16-year-olds, and 40,000 adults), and have the potential for re-shaping the capacity and capability of the local labour market to take full advantage of the net zero transition. We see the thinking and the emerging practice at local levels being a great way to view how national policies could be improved.
֎Learning to transform the word: key competencies in education for sustainable development in Issues and Trends in Education for Sustainable Development.
UNESCO, 2018.
This report has been around for a little while, but we have found the core competencies identified - systems thinking, anticipatory, normative, strategic, collaborative, critical thinking, self-awareness, and integrated problem-solving - still hold value today. These translate into what we find today in the QAA document Education for Sustainable Development. The continuing challenge now is to make use of these competence statements across curriculum development for schools, colleges and universities.
The implications of behavioural science for effective climate policy
CAST University of Bath for The Climate Change Committee, September 2023.
This is about understanding the options for engaging individuals at work and at home in the whole climate change debate, to the point where they change their behaviour. This review of the literature covers ground we have shared before about awareness and understanding being relatively low. Worth reading alongside a recent article in Nature Climate Change (March 2024) and the public attitudes tracker run by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero which looks at multiple clean tech and net zero changes.
Explore local statistics. Find, compare and visualise statistics about places in the UK
ONS, March 2024.
We mentioned a system in the USA in one of our recent podcasts (NERDE, National Economic Resilience Data Explorer) and this is one for the UK, developed by ONS and providing 57 indicators. It’s in beta version right now but shows potential.
Workforce 2.0. Unlocking human potential in a machine-augmented world. Global Talent Trends, 2024
Mercer, 2024.
A great overview of some of the key directions across HR, drawing on input from 845 C suite executives, 1,920 HR leaders, 9,449 employees and 84 investors, from 17 geographies and 16 industries. Green does not feature here but it does allow the context of green to be viewed alongside the driving force of AI.
֎Transformed by AI. How generative artificial intelligence could affect work in the UK – and how to manage it
IPPR, March 2024.
Makes extensive use of O*NET (the US occupational information database) and works at the task level, finding 11% of tasks are currently exposed to AI and this could rise to 59% with AI’s further development. For us the link made to green jobs is useful as the various waves of changes working themselves across all workplaces need bringing together (see Figure 4.4). This work finds that green tasks are less exposed to AI and automation compared to non-green tasks. The trio of policies proposed are fine but we are surprised that job design does not feature in the authors’ thinking. There are many choices to be made (which is acknowledged) about what is and is not automated, and the socio-technical analysis approach combined with job design can result in effective and socially attractive, high quality jobs.
Will large language models really change how work is done? Even as organisations adopt increasingly powerful LLMs, they will find it difficult to shed their reliance on humans
Sloan Review, Spring 2024.
There are two key sentences at the end of this paper. First: “The history of technology has shown that in the long run, new technologies create more jobs than they eliminate” and second: “Technological determinism – the notion that changes in technology are the main factor shaping society – is a popular theory with people who create technology, but is has little credibility among those who study it”. A useful paper amongst the many on AI. For us the interest is in the detailed consideration of the interaction of technology with specific tasks and work processes, and we could see this approach being used to assess green technologies and their work impact (perhaps using LLMs).
Generative AI and the Workforce
Burning Glass Institute and the Society for Human Resources Management, February 2024.
Complements the Sloan Review article well by looking at AI in terms of its impact on occupations (automation, augmentation, transformation) and identifying eight groups of the most impacted occupations: business and legal, finance, social sciences, writing and editing, STEM, sales, office and administrative support, and support. It would be good to extend this analysis and include other major waves of change across workplaces, like sustainability, net zero, and circular economy.
How America’s Largest Employers Advance Economic and Social Mobility: An analysis of career outcomes for millions of US workers
Burning Glass Institute for Business Roundtable, March 2024.
Covers 16mn US workers, and finds that 1.4mn people are uplifted to “middle class” status. This is interesting, and for us it shows the power of large corporations in providing a platform for skills development, application, and personal progression. For the green economy, this means that harnessing the internal labour market of large corporations is critical, plus they have the global reach to spread green skills across the world in a relatively standardised way.
Levelling-Up/Regional Development
֎Enabling green choices for net zero
POST UK Parliament, POST Note 0714, February 2024.
Covers the important ground of gaining widespread engagement and support for the decisions we all face ahead as consumers and users of low carbon technologies. There are two key skill sets here: first, the formation and delivery of society wide engagement programmes; and second, the education of citizens to be fully carbon literate. We are at very early days in the UK and we need to build on the pioneering actions of those already engaging with the net zero transition.
֎Catalysts of Change. People at the Heart of Climate Transformations. Key messages from five years of social science research on climate change
Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformation, University of Bath, March 2024.
A beautifully illustrated report which captures the five major messages coming from CAST’s work over the last five years. We have highlighted several projects and pilots that have sought to move forward and change our behaviours and lifestyle to ones that are contributing towards a net zero transition. We see the whole ‘hearts and minds’ challenge as being a major one as we seek to move beyond the pioneers. Perhaps should be read alongside the work of Project Drawdown which has a whole series of solutions to support shifting climate change understanding and actions at the individual level. There’s also an interesting report from Net Zero New Zealand (Nov 2022) which covers public interests and priorities: climate change and net zero rank highly.
֎Head North. A rallying cry for a more equal Britain
Orion Books, February 2024.
While this is a manifesto for two great British cities in North-West England, Liverpool and Manchester, the 10 core policy actions contained herein target a greater North-West. Two items are of particular interest to us: “Two Equal Paths in Education” (covering the MBacc in Manchester) and “Net Zero to a New Economy” (harnessing the greatest transition since the industrial revolution to build a new society and a new economy). But the biggest message for us from this manifesto is simple: further devolution has a lot to deliver for the whole of the UK, and a great way of raising policy design and implementation to a much higher level. The thinking on net zero leading to a new economy is largely derived from the work of the North West Green Energy Task Force which produced the report Can the North West be a Green Energy Superpower? (July 2023).
From challenge to opportunity: unlocking a UK-wide net zero investment dividend
3Ci (Cities Commission for Climate Investment) Net Zero Investment Taskforce, March 2024.
The aim of 3Ci is “to support local authorities secure the necessary long-term finance for achieving net zero”, and this report shows the start of the process of tackling the challenge of accessing (releasing?) finance into key net zero projects like retrofitting. It describes a number of schemes that are starting to emerge across the UK. It would be good if a small percentage of all capital projects funding could be released for the development of the necessary skills.
Five themes that will shape industrial growth in 2024 and beyond
Oxford Economics, December 2023.
The macro trends that drive growth are the ones we need to recognise and harness to further the opportunities they provide. Here, five are picked out of which the energy transition is one, alongside the labour market (easing tightness but structural factors showing). These are central to the development of the whole green economy and the association labour force.
West Midlands 2041. Five Year Plan 2021-26. Executive Summary (for net zero delivery)
WSP for West Midlands Combined Authority, 2021.
Drawn up a few years ago but still current and useful, covering green and low carbon skills (pages78-79). Contains an intriguing chart covering jobs created and job lost across five sectors (page 80). It would be useful to compare the employment numbers and skills reported here with the current LSIP for the West Midlands.
֎Jobs and Skills in the Transition to a Net Zero Economy: A Foresight Exercise
Diversity Institute, Future Skills Centre, and Smart Prosperity Institute for the Government of Canada’s Future Skill Program, May 2022.
An interesting piece of work using O*NET data across three scenarios using the gTech model. Drills down into multiple sectors and the key occupations within those sectors. Sectors covered include energy (electricity), alternative fuels (hydrogen and biofuels), construction, electronics and electrical equipment manufacturing. Based on this analysis and foresight work, a series of policy actions are derived. We are always interested in studies like this as it gives us data which allows the UK progress to be put into context, and the potential ranges of jobs to be generated by specific net zero actions.
Economic Benefits of Decarbonization in Florida
The Nature Conservancy, AECOM and Cambridge Econometrics, February 2024.
A well-structured study looking at a power-systems versus an economy-wide move to net zero, and the growth potential that exists for Florida. Chapter 5 is devoted to skills and workforce issues, and where the employment growth is projected to occur under both scenarios. Many US states have similar reports but few have gone through such a comparison of broad strategic options and opportunities.
South Africa’s Net Zero Transition: Towards a just, climate-resilient, prosperous future for South Africa
National Business Initiative, 2022.
There is a wealth of materials here covering the whole economy and specific sectors. We see in this report the scale of the challenge and provides a set of milestones and roadmap. It recognises the skills issues and the potential for manufacturing. But the big message for us is the transformational potential of the transition to net zero on the whole of South African society.
The City of Today is a Dying Thing: In Search of the Cities of Tomorrow
Des Fitzgerald, Faber and Faber, 2024.
It’s worth reading any book that says (on page 11) it’s “against green cities. It’s also more or less against the idea of the urban future … I’m writing against these things not because I’m sceptical about the positive effects of green space, or the need for some kind of environmental transformation as climate change starts to really bite, but because I think the science and politics of green urbanism is a great deal more complex than we want to admit.” This book is a tour de force with its amusing and challenging wanderings. We would add that it is written is a very readable style. Let’s hope Des writes a follow-up book looking backwards from 2050.
Corporate Standards
Above and Beyond: An SBTI Report of the design and implementation of beyond value chain mitigation (BVCM)
Science Based Targets, February 2024.
Major corporate standards that help to drive progress towards net zero are critical as it is harnessing the power of corporations in hit the various emissions targets towards 2050. This report covers the business case and implementation plans to make progress, and implicit within both is the development of corporate capacity and capability to meet net zero with customers and across supply chains. So, tracking the uptake and implementation of the standards gives us a view of the skilling of employees and their move to holding increasingly green jobs.
Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive. The Future Landscape of Sustainability Reporting
Deloitte, 2022.
We list this brochure as the requirement to report starts in 2025 using 2024 data covering nearly 50,000 entities. We expect to see skills moving up the agenda in corporations too as they seek to make progress on their sustainability agendas.
Five governance levers to prioritise for ESG success
HR Zone with the Open University, 2024.
A good introduction to the issues around sustainability and governance, and good to see the promotion of skills - upskilling in particular.
Energy Transition Strategy 2024
Shell, 2024.
Here on the home page is Shell’s energy transition strategy which shows intent and progress requiring $1bn investment per year over the next 10-12 years. It would be good to see the manpower and skills plan which lies beneath these low carbon investments, and the changing shape of Shell.
Pot Pourri
Embedding green industrial policy in a growth strategy for the UK
IPPR Progressive Review, Winter (November) 2023
Build on strengths and help them develop further. This analysis is based on work at the LSE and the Resolution Foundation which we have reported on before.
IRA, ARP, IIJA and Chips – Letters from America: What Labour can learn from the US about industrial strategy
IPPR Progressive Review, Winter (November) 2023
With the momentum gained in the USA arising from a series of major policies around green technology, there must be a lot to learn and the authors agree, there is. Supporting the growing trends for green investment can only work if the policies are truly nation-wide, and involve progressive skills and employment policies.