The Green Edge Reports Roundup, July-24: Part Two - Sectors
Continuing with our selection of reports and other publications from this month’s reading list.
Part Two of our crop of green reports from this months reading list. Also see Part One - General.
As usual, you can find all these reports and more in our searchable reports list on The Green Edge Data Portal.
֎ Reports we feel are particularly worth a look.
Energy
General
Great British Energy: from pledge to reality
Public First for Renewables UK, July 2024.
Really helpful examination of the focus and role of GBE, and how it might boost progress where current policies have not met the requirements of the UK economy to decarbonise. Through GBE the UK Government is sending a clear signal of intent and a direction of travel which will help greatly in developing the skills required in a manageable and planned way.
Renewable Energy Statistics 2024
International Renewable Energy Agency, 2024.
Up to date statistics on all forms of renewable energy at country levels. A useful reference source.
Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage programme
National Audit Office, July 2024.
The word which we read and remember most from this report is ‘risk’ - around progress, around delivery, around dependency, around not having an alternative pathway. CCUS is a key technology but has some way to go around the major clusters emerging in the UK.
Net zeroing in on investment: Priorities for the new Government in delivering a fair transition
Resolution Foundation, July 2024.
A thought-provoking report, but when we look at lifetime costs of capital items required to make the net zero transition work we always wonder why long-term funding options aren’t considered to defray the upfront costs over the lifetime of things like heat pumps or EVs in some form of leasing or increased energy charging mechanism. The new Government could de-risk this approach with some form of guarantees.
Electricity
Rapid decarbonisation of the GB electricity system
Royal Academy of Engineering, July 2024.
One of the key elements of the 180-day action plan is the development of a workforce strategy both for direct delivery roles and support roles like planning officers. We hope it’s reasonable to assume the Green Jobs Delivery Group’s Net Zero Workforce Plan will fill this void, and this should be available within the next few months. It’s also reasonable, in our book, to suggest that we will see full roles and restricted roles being identified and prioritised across the economy. By restricted, we mean roles where the holders are trained to undertake a restricted set of tasks.
Geothermal
Geothermal forecast and report to 2050
Rethink Research, June 2023.
A clean energy source which gets minimal coverage and which includes traditional, advanced and enhanced schemes. The piece which strikes us, leaving aside tapping volcanic sources, is that thermal can make use of existing deep bore holes and mines. We have to wonder at the potential for the onshore oil and gas industry, and some parts of the mining industry.
Grid
A week in the life of a net zero carbon electricity system in 2035
National Grid Electricity System Operator, March 2023.
These future energy scenarios are always helpful in providing a view on the energy supply we are seeking to develop. This one for 2035 shows renewables providing 78% of electricity supply (up from 29% in 2022) with the biggest jump coming in storage to ensure a continuous supply (37.3 GW from storage, versus 7.6 GW from hydrogen and 3.3 GW from bioenergy). The big message for us is that the next decade is THE decade of change driven by largescale investment.
Oil & Gas
Rocky Mountain Highs and Lows: Decommissioning Colorado’s Two Oil Industries
Carbon Tracker, June 2024.
As the transition to net zero gathers even more momentum, there is a need to decommission the fossil fuel facilities and infrastructure, and this is the focus for largely uncapped wells in one US State. It is unclear how this will be handled across the world, and what use some of the facilities can be put. It would be useful to see what the full net decommissioning costs are across the UK, and how they will be best managed. The only piece of infrastructure we have seen examined and debated is the gas national grid system.
Solar
֎Mapping current and future workforce and skills requirements in Scotland’s solar industry
Climate X Change, March 2024.
Really helpful study covering the potential for 6GW of solar installations in Scotland spread across ground-mounted (3.5 GW), commercial (1 GW), and domestic (1.5 GW). The study finds there is a need to grow the current 800 strong workforce to around 11,000 in 2030, and the growth is spread across 30+ occupations (see Table 6) with eight being the most important: a group of electrical ones (4) and another group of construction ones (4 also). It would be good to see this study extended and storage added as a way of both adding flexibility to overall national energy use and balancing of demand.
The technical and economic potential for crop based agrivoltaics in the UK
Solar Energy, July 2024.
A timely study given that solar PV installations on farms are being lifted in the UK, and this paper works through the potential. What is less clear are the workforce implications and requirements for designing, installing and maintaining solar systems in rural areas.
Solar Photovoltaics: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment
US Department of Energy, February 2022.
This is one of 11 deep dives into the supply chains of core energy technologies. This one covers the eight major areas of the solar supply chain which currently employs 230,000 (in 2022) and projects growth to between 500,000 and 1.5mn by 2030. One of the major developments will come from greatly reduced waste in the supply chain by changes in the production of wafers into cells.
Implementation of the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA)
European Solar Manufacturing Council, May 2024.
Interesting to see the development of potential trade barriers to the importation of PV solar panels to support a European solar industry. The list of criteria is long. It will be key for Germany which has the largest PV solar panel industry in Europe.
Storage
The Battery Mineral Loop: The path from extraction to circularity
RMI, July 2024.
This is quite a challenging report and shows that by 2050 there will have been sufficient gains from battery design and efficiencies along with an infrastructure of battery re-purposing and material recovery to not require mineral mining. One clear message then: there is a need to have a major dual strategy of attracting investment in battery technology and manufacturing (e.g. look at the work of UK BIC) alongside having a battery sustainability and circularity strategy. In terms of employment the opportunities are also significant in that all major points of consumption will become major suppliers of re-used battery materials for further manufacturing.
Wind
Energy Infrastructure Plan North Sea (Samenvatlend adviesrapport ten behoeve van het. Energie-Infrastructuur Plan Noordzee 2050)
Deloitte, March 2024.
While the offshore wind is vital to the UK’s net zero transition, there is much to learn from other active players like the Netherlands, and this is reported here. One feature which caught our attention was the generation and transportation of hydrogen to provide a stored energy source transported using (modified?) existing gas pipelines. Is this an option for the UK?
Agriculture & Forestry
The Farming and Countryside Programme
National Audit Office, July 2024.
For anyone wanting to understand the transition being steered by Defra in England to boost both environmental and sustainable practices and raise food production productivity (increase food security), this is a very useful status report. Three words remain with us on reading the report: trust, confidence, and complexity. Farmers are generational businesses battling with climate change and facing multiple challenges for the prices they gain for their products, and they tend not to have confidence or trust in Defra and its policy actions.
Sustainability and ESG Report 2023
Foresight Sustainable Forestry Company PLC, March 2024.
Interesting report; turn to page 19 to see the commitment and progress on education and training foresters of the future, and huge demand for professionally skilled people to join a rural workforce. There would appear to be a direct relationship between the hectares under management and the numbers of jobs created e.g. one forester being able to handle 6-7 hectares of trees (there are up to 1,600 trees per hectare of mixed woodland).
Review of the Seasonal Worker Visa
Migration Advisory Committee, July 2024.
While not totally relevant to green jobs per se, the report does give an insight into the agriculture labour market and how it operates. Our broader interest is in how agriculture might change further with automation and in part by the lack of staff.
Analysis of UK farm cropping plans and estimated impact of the wet winter on production
ECIU, April 2024.
Makes the simple point that a whole raft of crop yields are down in tonnage by large percentages (10-20%) and reduces the UK’s food resilience (security). Illustrates the impact of the weather (nothing new there) but if this is made even worse by long term climate change trends this must also have a knock effect to farm economics and employment levels too, and probably adds to pressures on food prices.
Built Environment & Construction
֎Focusing on the skills construction needs: Labour Market Intelligence Report, UK 2024-2028
Construction Skills Network (CITB and Experian), May 2024.
A cornerstone document for anyone wanting to understand the skills needs for construction across all areas, from housebuilding to major infrastructure programmes that underpin the emerging green economy. Usefully the data are split down by nations and regions.
֎Building a workforce for greener homes
Ovo and Energy and Utilities Skills, 2024.
Green skills here cover advisory and assess roles, heat pump installation, and solar PV. It concludes that we will need 362,000 people for the home retrofit workforce by 2035, but makes the strategic point that there might be 800,000 people with the skill set that could be transferred to the green home workforce. This would suggest the training of a qualified workforce that is able to undertake a series of specified tasks and probably operate under supervision. This seems to be the direction of travel of the Green Jobs Delivery Group’s thinking as well as it seeks to make the most effective use of fully qualified electricians. No doubt this will have to be an early decision of the new Government in the UK.
Climate Action Plan: Decarbonisation
Energy Systems Catapult for the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero, July 2024.
While this guide is aimed at schools, we feel it could be equally used by others who own and operate buildings as it walks us through the series of steps to create a plan. It’s a mini-training course.
Heat & Retrofit
֎Delivering clean heat: a policy plan
Nesta, July 2024.
Offers a six-element plan with one focusing on growing the heating workforce which suggests three actions: support existing engineers to switch to low-carbon heating; attract new entrants to the sector (say from air conditioning installation); and raise the quality of installations (beyond the MCS one assumes). The policy paper also wraps these six policy legs around three distinct phases: making low-carbon heating avoidable; phase out fossil fuels; and then deliver the transition at scale. This all makes great sense, and we have the feeling the revitalised Department for Energy Security and Net Zero will pay attention. This policy plan certainly builds on the work of RAP and E3G with their Getting on track to net zero: heat pumps (March 2021).
A policy toolkit for global mass heat pump deployment
Regulatory Assistance Project, CLASP and the Global Buildings Performance Network, November 2022.
Look at tools to promote heat pump uptake under three main headings: economic and market instruments (environmental taxes, taxes and levies on energy; and obligations and portfolio obligations), financial support (grants and rebates, loans, and heat as a service), and regulations (building codes and standards, bans and appliance standards, and planning and zoning). Together policies in these three areas can result in a sustainable market for heat pumps. We can see these there levers being used in the UK and hopefully they will be more fully used over the next five years.
The hunt for the most efficient heat pump in the world
Science, July 2024.
For those interested in heat pumps this is a useful read and would help anyone trying to convince sceptics about heat pumps. Useful sets of links too.
Ready for retrofit? An analysis of local skills improvement plans in England
Gatsby, June 2024.
A potentially interesting study using data from the main LSIP documents to examine retrofit skills. While retrofit was not strictly within the core scope of the LSIPs, some of them did carry out deep dives into either retrofit or the wider green economy – often, we see these studies buried down in the appendices. Still, plenty of scope for follow-on work to examine the LSIP inputs alongside other drivers of retrofit skills development, like the regional net zero hubs, the role of the Catapults, and other policies like the Home Decarbonisation Skills Training Competition (now into its third wave). One of the biggest challenges lies more in the profile of businesses that do retrofit work – notably SMEs – that are notoriously difficult to access. But we see evidence of numerous pioneers (see the Nesta work).
Infrastructure
Public infrastructure for effective climate mitigation and adaptation: Proceedings of a workshop
National Academies Press, May 2024.
While great focus is on the infrastructure for energy generation and distribution that must not detract from attention on the wider infrastructure and its ability to cope with great temperature ranges, risks of flooding and water run-off, and tidal changes. This workshop proceedings walk through this territory. We can see aspects of this in the UK with the commitments to flood defences and the raft of planned works across the water and transport industries.
Textiles
Green washing in fashion: A roadblock on the path towards a sustainable textile industry
Ambienta, 2024.
An excellent short guide to many of the major issues confronting the textiles industry which is about to have to fully comply with a range of new regulations. When we read this report and other related ones we can only be struck by the scale of the challenges from the business models with its impact of water (pollution) through to waste management (73% ending in landfill). The most startling one to us was that up to 40% of manufactured clothing is never sold or worn. Worth reading alongside Green Alliance’s Changing fashion - what people want from a greener clothing (April 2024) and the Ambienta’s Sustainability drives value - ESG and Environmental Impact Report (2023).
Transport
How we will create happier, healthier and greener lives through cycling: Our strategy 2024-2029
Cycling UK, 2024.
With the growth of active transport across the UK, this strategy for one of the UK’s leading cycling bodies is worth reading. One statistic we were hoping to see was for the number of jobs linked to the growing repair and maintenance of our bikes. The latest employment figures for the cycling industry in the UK are 64-69,000 (of which about one third are directly in cycling itself). And just think about the bike hire activity in the UK where the latest figures (2022) show there are 23,000 bikes available for hire and 41,200 trips are made per day.
EV Charging: Category Insight Report
Tussell, February 2024.
Covers the public side of EV chargers and identifies the major players winning public sector contracts. New entrants do appear on the list alongside the majors like Siemens, BP and Shell. The employment numbers quoted here are a little misleading as they are for the whole legal entity (not just the EV charging side) and are taken from LinkedIn but useful all the same.
Refuelling aviation in the United States: Evolution of US sustainable aviation fuel policy
RMI, February 2024.
Key message for us is the range of SAF and that a different range of policies can promote or hinder their development. For the UK it means having clarity of the real options and devising a robust strategy. There are clear overlaps with other net zero policies and their by-products e.g. agriculture, hydrogen production, etc.
Planning for future EV growth at airports
National Academies Press, April 2024.
A practical guide to the challenge of EVs at airports, examined through the eyes of eight use cases (see Figure 3 for a summary). Two things struck us in reading this report: the huge demand for electricity at airports (likely to double within 10 years), and also the huge state-by-state variations across the USA with distinctly leading and lagging states. From a skills perspective we could see the concentration of investment in EV charging at airport as a one way of creating centres of excellence for both skills training and also EV charging maintenance and repair.
Understanding airport air quality and public health studies related to airports, 2nd edition
National Academies Press, May 2024.
While much of the net zero interest in airports is around sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and the electrification of the transport at airports (along with passenger vehicles and hire cars), there continues to be the major health threat of air quality and its direct impact on human health. It is worth noting that even with SAF many of the air quality issues remain. It is marked that as interest shifts from net zero (decarbonisation) to sustainability the air quality issue become a major concern. This would then suggest that there is a major set of sustainability roles seeking to manage, monitor and improve air quality.
Water
Our draft determinations for the 2024 price review: Sector summary
Ofwat, July 2024.
Several aspects strike us here, aside from the direct environmental part, and they are the scale of the investments being made (c£320 per head per year for 5 years in capital). After that, there are the workforce implications: both for the water companies themselves and their contractors e.g . for one well performing and well-regarded water company we have spoken to, their direct workforce is rising from 3,250 to 4,000 by 2030, and its contractor workforce is planned to grow from 4,000 to 8,000 over the same period. This growth of the workforce through replacement and additions will be competing with other major infrastructure work over the next 5-10 years.