The Green Edge Reports Roundup, Feb-24: Part Two - Sectors
Continuing with our selection of reports and other publications from this month’s reading list.
Part Two of our crop of green reports from this months reading list. Also see Part One - General.
As usual, you can find all these reports and more in our searchable reports list on The Green Edge Data Portal.
֎ Starting this month we’re adding this new notation against reports we feel are particularly worth a look.
Energy
UK’s Third Carbon Budget, 2018-2022
The Climate Change Committee, February 2024.
Simple message: historic progress has been good and largely covers the “easy” areas to reduce emissions; and do not let-up, press-on, and develop policies to drive the next wave of changes to meet future carbon budget targets. So, on the skills and manpower side, the need and demand will be building but across multiple sectors: buildings, transport, energy transmission etc.
Business models to support energy investment
National Infrastructure Commission letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, February 2024.
This short, important letter contains a few key sentences: “it is taking too long to make decisions on [large scale hydrogen and gas with carbon capture and storage] policy mechanisms. There was a two-and-a-half-year gap between issuing a call for evidence on support for long term storage and consulting on specific measures.” The letter goes on: “Government needs to move faster to ensure that the necessary infrastructure can be delivered over the next decade.” Delays with major strategic development and investments also cast a shadow over skills development.
Energy transition investment trends 2024: Tracking global investment in the low-carbon transition
BNEF, January 2024.
The flows of capital into clean energy projects is growing fast. The UK alone received $74bn of investment of 2023 but it is worth noting that a few major corporate capital raises can have a huge impact on the figures for a single country e.g. Sweden with Northvolt and H2 Green Steel raising $3.6bn in 2023. There is no indication that the rate of investment is faltering but the balance is shifting going forward with CCUS winning a greater share of the capital.
Energy Transition Outlook UK 2024: A National Forecast to 2050
DNV, 2024.
Good up-to-date set of forecasts which are mixed for the UK. If you only have time to read part of this report, the opening few pages summary is very helpful context. Underlines the view that historic progress in the UK has been commendable, but looking out towards 2050 there are multiple challenges.
Global Transmissions Database
Dartmouth College Sustainable Transitions Lab, November 2023.
An emerging data source which could well be important going forward in the UK as we see changing patterns of energy transmission across borders increasing. The countries covered in this version of the database are Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Russian Federation, Thailand, USA, and Vietnam. Remember the UK is being connected to Morocco in North Africa to tap into solar energy as a part of the Xlinks Morocco-UK Power Project. This 3,800 km subsea cable will meet 7.5% of UK electricity consumption and be operational in 2029 with Phase II coming on stream in 2031.
The price is wrong: why capitalism won’t save the planet
Brett Christopher, Version, February 2024.
A fascinating study of the electricity markets and how renewable energy will need State help to succeed. At the core of the problem, the rates of returns between renewable (5-8%) and oil and gas (15%), and the challenge of the “unbundled” electricity market. Policy solutions to date for renewables (not nuclear) have focused on privileged market access, the socialising of some costs, etc. Any new Government in the UK must address this issue if the targets for 2030 are to be achieved, and matching any action must be a skills approach.
Demand side response: a tool for lowering household energy bills
POST Note 715, February 2024.
Making the best use of the whole energy system at all times means that its overall costs of operation can be reduced. This POST note shows the size of the gains to be made with full operating costs of the system by 2050, projected to be £70bn, and the demand side addition could reduce this by £3-8bn and also reduce capital requirements too. While technology can help here, it also requires a behaviour shift on the part of both domestic and commercial consumers.
The power of moving loads: cost analysis of megawatt charging in Europe
Regulatory Assistance Project, February 2024.
Making the transport transition within a country is complex, and this is magnified when it moves across international borders (even within the EU). Currently there is huge variability in charging rates and there is a need to prevent “charging tourism”. This paper tackles this issue and raises important policy questions. While motorways can be plotted and planned for freight movement, actual tourism might be less easy to plan. We have to wonder that by the time we have a fully comprehensive charging infrastructure, we will have much greater battery ranges.
Monthly Report on Research and Policy and Climate Change
Climate X Change, Edinburgh, February 2024.
A great resource listing key pieces of research and policy development with a Scotland focus. This one covers the period December 2023 and January 2024.
Batteries
Battery Raw Materials Forecast, 2024-2030
ReThink Energy, January 2024.
Given the growing importance of batteries, interest in the core raw materials is of major strategic importance, and this report tracks and forecasts near term trends. As development in battery technology progress, raw material requirements change. The opportunity for UK is mainly in refining materials and a limited amount of extraction, but by far it will be the recycling and re-use of batteries, and finally in the reclamation of materials.
Grid
GETting interconnected in PJM: Grid-enhancing-technologies (GETs) can increase the speed and scale of new entry from PJM’s queue
RMI, February 2024.
Covers three GETs technologies: dynamic line ratings, power flow control, and topology optimisation. Together these technologies can reduce the speed and reduce the costs of connections. The analysis is well illustrated and begs questions for the three technologies’ applicability in the UK, and the impact on the whole transition to net zero for the National Grid. It also says that there are a range of technologies to be further developed and refined. PJM Interconnection coordinates the movement of electricity through all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia – a series of States with populations of 65mn (Link).
Resource adequacy in the 2030s: Planning for further studies
National Grid, July 2023.
Ensuring there is capacity across the distribution system is vital, and the ongoing studies reveal the balancing act in matching supply and demand with an adequate distribution system. We need to tie in to this process a suitable set of skills and manpower forecasts. If this area is of interest it is worth digging into the previous reports and in particular the one by Afry.
Grid lock in the Netherlands
Regulatory Assistance Project, February 2024.
An important case study of the issues that may lie ahead in the UK where the constraint of the installed capacity of the grid might hold back decarbonisation. In the Netherlands the National Grid Congestion Action Programme focuses on build/installation, efficiency, and flexibility. This calls for skills and staffing across the grid network, and some risk assessments to be undertaken to flag what the capacity constraints might mean to all sizes of users.
Cables to change the world: The benefits of transmission to decarbonise global electricity supply
Transition Zero, November 2023.
The move to net zero brings with it the potential for significant new energy trading relationships through inter-connectors, saving around $3 trillion in the process. In this report we see the potential for North Africa – Europe, USA – Canada, a new Pan-American energy highway, and vast schemes across India and China. Yes, the UK is a part of this shift but probably doesn’t receive sufficient coverage, nor is the knock-on effects to skills, jobs and employment factored into the wider net zero plan development by the Climate Change Committee.
Hydrogen
Cost reduction pathways of green hydrogen production in Scotland – total costs and international comparison
Climate X Change, Edinburgh, May 2023.
Excellent study of the potential of green hydrogen production in Scotland, and what needs to be done to start the building of a new industry. Getting the whole cost environment right and the alignment of Government long term support. It will be good to see the skills, jobs and employment component aspects of this new industry being charted.
Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs: Funding Opportunity Announcement
Department of Energy, Office of Clean Energy Demonstration, September 2022.
Announcement documents have a history of being a little dull, but not this one. Its great infographics, charts and diagrams quickly explain and chart the development of H2Hubs. Useful to anyone wanting to see the potential as the clean (green) hydrogen hubs start to come into life across the UK.
Nuclear
Nuclear Energy and the Welsh Economy
Welsh Parliament, Economy, Trade and Rural Affairs Committee, February 2024.
Some very common themes come out of this report: the needs for long-term policy certainty, the building of UK-wide and local partnerships, and a clear skills and education pathway both within Wales and through the UK Government’s Nuclear Skills Taskforce. The report also highlights the clear cross-over between UK energy policy and national and regional development.
Solar
How to address the unsustainably low PV module prices to ensure a renaissance of the PV industry in Europe
European Solar Manufacturing Council, September 2023.
Highlights the challenges being faced for PV manufacturing in Europe and how they might be addressed. We have highlighted before the recycling and re-purposing of panels after their useful life and different forms of panels (coatings, tiles, inclusion into windows, etc.).
Agriculture/Nature
֎Opening-up vocational pathways into nature-based green jobs
Resources for Change for Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management and LANTRA, November 2023.
A helpful report that places nature green jobs into context, together with their importance on making progress towards a sustainable future. Two features we liked: Figures 1 and 8 which provide “Examples of our virtual whiteboard activity about the skills gap” and plays the skills a graduate might have and those they need to acquire to be developed; and second, a section on “how skills are developed” (2.1, page 38). We would suggest if this CIEEM and LANTRA report interests you, then the work in Scotland is also great on showing the roles in the wider nature economy (Nature Based Jobs) - see Annex 1 which lists out the huge range of roles across nature.
Global Policy Report: The Economics of the Food System Transformation
Food System Economics Commission, January 2024.
Helps to place the biodiversity aspects of food production into context, and provides links to an extensive library of materials and resources.
The UK’s contribution to tackling global deforestation
HC 405, Environmental Audit Committee, House of Commons, January 2024.
Looking at deforestation from the perspective of the impact the UK has on the rest of world due to our patterns of consumption. What we were hoping to see here was some form of impact statement of patterns, and what this means for the degree of change required other than having new standards and new audit methods.
Forests x Decarbonisation Challenge 2022: Award Winners Report
Forestry Agency of Japan, June 2022.
Japan is a widely forested country (60+%) and this report covers a competition by a forestry owners and managers to sequester carbon. The UK Forestry Commission could perhaps adopted a similar approach, and promote forestry as a part of the ELMS programme for farmers.
Circular Economy
The future of UK plastics recycling: one bin to rule them all
Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 164, January 2021.
More recycling is good, but it needs to standardise and work across all areas of the UK. This report covers the ground well for plastics. Shows the complexity of the task to be done around the use of plastics in packaging, and the potential role of design.
Heating and Retrofit
֎Policy Note: Planning and coordinating the switch to low-carbon heating
Nesta, February 2024.
This is a draft policy note which raises a series of key questions around domestic energy switching. A move to a co-ordinated and a planned approach would have a profound effect on skills development as it would bring both scale and a basis on which to invest in training. Nesta is running multiple workshops over March and April, and we would encourage those involved in domestic energy switching to read and get involved. Public opinion and understanding is key and here there is clearly a lot to do as the UKERC report shows.
Left out in the cold: The hidden health costs of cold homes
UCL Institute of Health Equity, February 2024.
Correctly, there is a high level of focus on domestic buildings retrofitting, and this report just shows the huge benefits to be made if insulation were to be undertaken. Depending on the approach adopted the number of cold homes (that harm health) ranges from 3.53mn to 13mn and this report works on a 9.6mn (34% of all homes). Insulation (solid and cavity wall, loft, double glazing, draught proofing) with ventilation has a huge emissions reduction payback, also reducing energy costs and improving health. Over a 10-year period, it would cost £74.5bn to do the necessary work across the UK. A message for us is to view the net zero benefits alongside those of health or living costs as making investment manageable and realistic. If this area is of interest it is worth looking at the evidence review on London and England.
The Economic Impact of Building Social Housing
CEBR report for Shelter and the National Housing Federation, February 2024.
Builds on the report listed above and shows the economic and major employment impact of building 90,000 social houses per year over the next 10 years: 140,000 direct jobs and 353,000 jobs in total in construction alone. There’s an additional question to ask here around capacity across the UK construction sector to be able to undertake this level of house building (which hopefully will not require retrofitting if they are built to the future houses building standard).
Public Sector Decarbonisation Guidance. Theme 1: Developing and Delivering Your Strategy
Energy Systems Catapult for the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero, Cabinet Office, and the Government Property Function, May 2023.
The public sector estate is vast and has a huge role to play in driving the built environments push for net zero. We found the step-by-step process described here of use into which skills are built from the outset. Let’s hope this guide is widely read and used, and leads to skills be front and centre of the transition to net zero.
Heat Resilience and Sustainable Cooling
Environmental Audit Committee, House of Commons, January 2024.
An area of retrofitting which gets overlooked, this is a useful addition to inform policy developments in the UK. Jobs and skills do get a brief mention (page 26) but raise the huge of wave of work over the coming years. Some estimates suggest a need for 250,000 extra people by 2030.
Heat pumps supply chains environmental impact reduction to improve the UK energy sustainability, resiliency, and security
Scientific Reports, 2023.
Looks at the whole supply chain of heat pumps (including hydrogen) and concludes re-shoring of manufacturing given the volumes. We would question the hydrogen opportunity based on other studies.
Flex-ability for all: Pursuing socially inclusive demand-side flexibility in Europe
RAP, January 2024.
As we make slow progress towards decarbonising the UK housing stock, there is a need for parallel development around energy demand management changes. This flexible approach, which has a huge benefit on reducing the capacity of electricity supply, needs to be a key part of the design of whole building energy systems, and for this be made available to all households and not just those who can be pioneers.
Evaluating the social benefit and network costs of heat pumps as an energy crisis intervention
iScience, February 2024.
Interesting approach on setting priorities for policy intervention and funding based on looking at fuel poverty, and seeking out low cost, high benefit targets. Our interest here is simple: how to take low carbon heating into hard-to-reach areas of the UK.
Construction
Construction Industry Training Board Annual Report 2022/23
CITB, HC439
We find annual reports for major sector-focused training bodies are useful review documents of what has been achieved and what is to come around net zero, green skills and retrofitting. So, a useful source document to get a immediate picture across UK construction in particular at the craft levels.
Embodied and Whole Life Carbon: 2023-2025 Implementation Plan for the Homebuilding Industry
Futures Homes Hub, January 2023.
We’ll need to dig further here to see what impact this implementation plan is having, but it is good to see that one of the six main themes covered is “skills”.
Design
֎Design Economy: The Design Value Framework
Design Council, 2022.
Design is a large part of the UK economy employing nearly 2mn people, and one which has great potential for us all to rethink our transition to net zero. This framework, which is due an update, is one that encompasses four core values and starts the walk towards competency development. The values are also matched to the SDG which illustrates its alignment to designing for the planet.
Fashion and Apparel
֎Fashion and Apparel: Priority actions towards a nature-positive future
Business for Nature, September 2023.
One of the 12 sector guides developed by Business for Nature (for the other 11 sectors, click here). We see this guide (and the others) as being useful for developing understanding of a sector, its impact and possible future actions. It would fit well into any introductory courses on climate change and net zero.
Finance
Interim Progress Report
Investment Delivery Forum of the Association of British Insurers, February 2024.
There’s a chilling table on page 6 which charts the shortfall in funding over the next 25 years and shows there is a £615bn shortfall by 2030. This report is charting the territory (energy generation, energy network – includes EV and CCUS – and housing and property – includes retrofitting and affordable housing), showing the flows of investment that lie behind the generation of green jobs and the requirements for green skills. Tracking reports such as this are important indicators of green jobs to come. The website for the Investment Delivery Forum is also useful in that includes details of many projects (case studies) and also a map of the projects.
֎A Users Guide to Climate Related Financial Disclosures (2nd Edition)
Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment, February 2024.
A practical and easy to read guide for financial disclosure, and a great introductory read for anyone having to consider climate change and net zero financial disclosures. We would see this guide being used both in introductory courses for people in general management, as it raises practical questions and helps thinking about the knowledge, understanding and skills needed by most people in business.
What next for adaptation finance?
Green Finance Institute, December 2023.
We are seeing more and more explorations, plans and case studies of green finance, and here the focus is adaptation investment (“climate security” investment) which in the UK needs to run at £5-10bn per year (private and public sources). In this brief report we have water utilities being covered for reservoirs and sewage schemes along with the healthy financial returns being made. Green finance products will become increasingly important over the next decade as a way of progressing towards net zero.
Steel
Breakthrough Agenda Report 2023
IEA, September 2023.
See Chapter 5 on steel which is very informative, and read alongside the recent OECD report on steelmaking capacity Then consider both in the context of the recent comments made by Robert Habeck, German Economy Minister: “If steel production [which employs 90,000 in Germany] were to disappear from here, we would not only lose steel but also our automotive industry and the supplier industry.” (FT, February 26th 2024) So, the UK transitioning to green steel is critical especially ahead of the introduction of the carbon border adjustment, and needs to be a part of overall industrial strategy.
Transport
֎EV strategy: rapid recharge needed
Environment and Climate Change Committee, House of Lords, February 2024.
A thorough read of all things EV from cost of purchase, infrastructure rollout, charging pricing, greening the grid, road taxation, battery innovation, and EV battery recycling. Simple message: much more needs to be done, and in a much more co-ordinated way. Passenger cars currently account for c50% of all emissions from road transport, and so is a major area that needs to change. Skills shortages are noted around EV maintenance and the shortage driving up costs through to local authorities not having sufficient capacity to play their role, and the skills needed to green the grid. It also highlights the need to take a long-term view and to hold to key milestone dates.
Refuelling Aviation in the United States: Evolution of US sustainable aviation fuel policy
RMI, February 2024.
RMI’s usual high standards of work are evident here with its great graphics (e.g. the power to liquid for the aviation sector – or, more to our way of thinking, green hydrogen meets CCUS). It identifies a series of major policy gaps (hydrogen, carbon as a feasibility, infrastructure, planning and permitting timelines, spatial disconnects between supply and demand, safety, etc.). What is particularly interesting are the variations at state level, and how this might impact progress towards a net zero aviation world.
Pot Pourri
Not the end of world: how we can be the first generation to build a sustainable planet
Hannah Ritchie, Chatto and Windus, January 2024.
A very readable stock take, showing where progress has been, and is being, made across areas like acid rain, the ozone layer, air pollution, and climate change. Let’s hope the author’s optimism for carbon pricing comes in quickly and at a level that has an impact - though this is hard to see happening soon given the changed stances being taken in many countries to the costs associated with the transition to net zero.
Facing the climate emergency: how to transform yourself with climate truth. 2nd Edition
Margaret Salamon and Molly Gage, New Society Publishers, 2023.
Aimed at the frustrated citizen. We have seen in our various posts that groups of active citizens can have a significant impact in their communities and in people’s understanding of their net zero options.
Saving ourselves: From climate shocks to climate action
Dana Fisher, Columbia University Press, February 2024.
A handbook for climate activists. The author suggests we should learn from the US civil rights movement and seek to leverage awareness of current and near future climate shocks to bring about change. Many of these climate shocks will bring direct and real pain to many, from which action might follow. Perhaps the wise Government and political leaders should be reading the reality of people’s concerns and take further action to bring about the transition to net zero.
Embedding green industrial policy in a growth strategy for the UK
IPPR Progressive Review, Winter (November) 2023
Build on strengths and help them develop further. This analysis is based on work at the LSE and the Resolution Foundation on which we have reported previously.