The Green Edge Reports Roundup, Dec-23
Continuing with our selection of reports and other publications from this month’s reading list.
To start the year, an abridged reports roundup from our December reading list. As usual, though, you can find all these reports and more in our searchable reports list on The Green Edge Data Portal.
Skills
Skills for a Resilient Green and Digital Transition
OECD, November 2023
Real interest here is Chapter 3 - Skills for net zero future: empowering communities for the green transition. In this chapter look for Table 3.1: Projected change in the demand for skills between 2019 and 2030 Under the Fit for 55 scenarios (which is based on the analysis of Lightcast data).
Green skills survey: a summary of the headline findings and recommendations
Environmental Policy Forum, December 2023.
Well worth a quick read if only to take in the Executive Summary (page 3) where the research aims (three in all) are listed and aligned to a series of headline findings (8 in all). The research aims are: determine the extent of the green skills challenge across sectors and anecdotal/research evidence to demonstrate this challenge; discover the activity underway or planned to address green skills challenges where they exist; and, determine interest in collaboration and areas where activity could be focused to maximise our collective impact. On the findings side, we pick out three as well: limited awareness of green jobs/routes available is the biggest barrier to entry; notable skills gaps include behaviour change and digital; and, there is growing majority interest in collaborating on boosting green skills.
Green Jobs: State of the Nation
Green Jobs Foundation (City and Guilds, Page Group, and PWC), November 2023.
A useful monitoring report looking at green jobs being posted (280,589 in 2022, which is 3% of the total) using Lightcast data and their definition of a green jobs (contains at least one of the 442 green skills of the total of 32,000 jobs-based skills in their taxonomy). The local and regional picture is interesting which shows the emerging picture we know well from green energy. It would be good to see a measure of the emergence of green skills being acquired and refined in existing jobs (where the bulk of green skills are being applied), and some of the sectors which might not show comprehensively in Lightcast jobs data (e.g. agriculture and nature sector). We suggest this report is read alongside an excellent post on Institute of Employment Studies website which was also published in November 2023.
Skills for the Green Transition. Evidence from the EU Neighbourhood
European Training Foundation, November 2023.
Pools learnings from across multiple countries, and provides a series of pillars for skills for a green transition (which here are seen as being in three parts: sustainable thinking and action, technical skills, and transversal skills): ambitious green transition targets, emphasise skills, promote holistic green education reforms, strengthen skills intelligence systems for monitoring skills demands and deployment, enhance talent attraction, and address widespread disparities in accessing skills and decent work to enable the green transition.
Labour market
Generation Green Jobs? Exploring young people’s readiness for the net zero skills revolution
Public First, November 2023.
A few simple messages: there is confusion, misunderstanding of green jobs and opportunities. This barrier to young people to entering green jobs requires much better and more intensive careers information, advice and guidance, and a series of occupational maps for the green industries (one for IfATE to action perhaps?).
Higher Technical Qualifications. How to liberate employers and skill workers for the future
Policy Connect, December 2023.
We have covered various studies (mainly by the Resolution Foundation) that L4 and L5 qualifications are key to taking the UK economy forward in terms of technology development, application and installation, operation and maintenance, and repair and re-use. We see this report in that light and it is a useful addition to evidence and arguments of change and reform which we support.
Micro-credentials for labour market education and training: the added value for end users
Cedefop, 2023.
Much of the education and training required to equip the UK green workforce will need to be focused at people currently in work, and so a form of micro-credentials will be important. This report goes through the issues of creating a robust approach and delivery of micro-credentials across the EU.
Broken ladders. Why the ‘ladder of opportunity’ is broken for so many young people, and how to fix it
EDSK, December 2023.
Developing a pipeline of talent into apprenticeships at L3-5 is vital to have the skilled workforce to deliver the net zero transition, and this report makes a series of ten recommendations to help remove the barriers to boosting the numbers of young apprentices. This report should be read alongside the recent work of the Resolution Foundation and that of Engineering UK.
What drives UK firms to adopt AI and robotics, and what are the consequences for jobs
Institute for the Future of Work, September 2023.
There are several fascinating findings from this study. 79% of firms report adopting new technology to undertake physical and cognitive tasks; SMEs are deploying these technologies at the same rate as larger ones; the net impact on job creation is positive as is the impact on skills. For sustainability and the transition to net zero, AI and the adoption of related automation technologies is important and we think there is a clear interdependence which we would like to see explored further.
Levelling-up/Regional Development
Skills Devolution. Putting communities in control?
LTE Group and Centre for Policy and Research, November 2023.
An important view of how to take forward the adult education budget and make greater impact and progress: the call for post-16 capacity planning is long overdue and the market does not serve students well; likewise the need for funding stability is vital along with sufficient space to support improvement and innovation (and this also covers having stability for sustainable pay), and a much greater balance is required when talking of an employer-centred skills system which also takes on the wider employment support for those seeking to re-enter work. It would be good to see a response from the DfE to this document, and also from Manchester Combined Authority with its priority around the Manchester Baccalaureate.
Nations and Regions Tracker: Small Business Finance Markets
British Business Bank, 2023.
This report is a little goldmine of information. Just taking two nuggets from the role of university spinouts in regional development: Figure 2.7 shows the average size of UK academic spin-outs deals across technology/IP-related deal sub-sectors by cluster grouping, and Figure 2.5 shows the share of the total UK academic spinout deals tagged with selected technology/IP related buzzwords by cluster grouping. There are some very distinct patterns, and it would be useful to know the interplay between these academic-based spinout businesses and the development of “pioneering skills” at the frontier of clean technology creation.
Adapting to climate change: Progress in Scotland
Climate Change Committee, November 2023.
Through its 200+ pages this report provides a series of simple messages: progress, yes, but more to do, much more to do. We’ll see in 2024 how the Scottish Government plans will take-up the advice provided by the Climate Change Committee. Skills hardly get a mention in the report and we’d like to see this brought out to a greater degree and made explicit.
Energy
World Energy Employment 2023
International Energy Agency, November 2023.
If anyone is in doubt about the scale and rate of growth of renewable energy employment, just take a quick look at this report. We see solar employing 4mn, EV and batteries at 2mn, wind 1.5mn and a huge growth in critical minerals and heat pumps employment growth at 27%. The details are further developed over 20 pages (pp.26-46) for occupations (page 32, 35). One message here is that there is a global demand for all skills across renewable energy construction and operation and there is much to share and learn as regards skills standards and curriculum.
Carbon Capture, Storage and Utilisation
Assessing the relative costs of high-CCS and low-CCS pathway to 1.5 degrees
Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, December 2023.
A detailed analysis of the role and costs of CCS, with a clear conclusion: the low-CCS target (10% of emissions abated) will be both a technical challenge, and an allocation challenge (a precious resource to be used sparingly), but will be much more effective than aiming for a high-CCS (50%) on costs grounds.
The Applied Innovation Roadmap for CDR. An Independent Perspective to Guide RD&D Funding
RMI, November 2023.
Covers the four main CDR (carbon dioxide removal) areas: biogenic, geochemical, synthetic, and storage. A report for those who want to know the detail and the readiness of the various technologies.
Energy Efficiency
Energy Efficiency 2023
International Energy Agency, 2023.
This is the 10th edition of this report, and it makes a significant statement around the employment implications of increasing the rate of progress with energy efficiency: “The extra efficiency-related jobs inherent in doubling energy intensity progress to around 4% per annum this decade could lead to around 4.5 million more jobs in 2030 than in 2022, across buildings, industry, and transport.” (page 73) So, energy efficient is both a major contributor to achieving net zero and also a major generator of employment opportunities across architecture, building, contracting, and equipment manufacturing, and includes: building retrofits, production and installation of heat pumps, production and installation of energy management systems, design and manufacture of efficient appliances and building materials, etc.
Solar Energy
EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2023-2027
Solar Power Europe, 2023.
Employment in solar power across the EU 27 is already large at 684,000 but this is set to grow to 1mn by 2025, and 1.2mn by 2027. To achieve this rate of growth and doubling its workforce over the next 3-4 years there is a need to a clear workforce plan. Sadly, the UK is no longer part of this analysis, but this report does provide a series of benchmarks to view the UK rate of growth. Also worth looking at Solar for Europe Manifesto and its 4th item on skills. Perhaps we should borrow this manifesto for the UK?
Agriculture/Nature
A Climate for Change: Adaptation and the National Trust
National Trust, 2023.
A useful review of the huge task the National Trust is taking on across its mitigation and adaptation work, and where they overlap. Full of case studies and these walk us into heritage buildings and estates as well.
Assessing the cumulative and cross-sector economic benefits of investment in natural capital in Scotland
Scottish Government, November 2023.
The first thing that strikes us when reading this report is the scale of the natural capital economy in Scotland: requiring £12.5bn investment over 2022-2032 yielding £17bn in benefits, and supporting 146,000 direct jobs (and a further 51,000 indirect ones). One of the largest parts of the natural capital economy is silviculture and forestry: 70,000 jobs and an output of £4.4bn. It would be good to see this study’s approach applied across the whole of the UK.
Circular Economy
Jobs and skills to drive a circular built environment
Circle Economy, November 2022.
Within the context of the huge churn in jobs that are foreseen to occur as we move towards the circular economy, this briefing note brings together Circle Economy’s work and lists out four key drivers for change in the built environment: smart materials management; product-as-a-service; bio-based materials; and, offsite modular construction.
The Circularity Gap Report 2023
Circle Economy, January 2023.
A key report for us all to read to understand the progress and stages of progress towards the circular economy and from which seven major themes emerge. Two areas stuck with us: only 7.2% of the economy is currently circular, and with a full circular economy our needs for materials drops down to 70% of the current levels. While the other area was the model of progress towards becoming a circular economy: build, grow and shift.
Critical Minerals
A rock and a hard place: building critical mineral resilience
Foreign Affairs Committee, House of Commons, December 2023.
The transition to a green, circular, and net zero-based economy is dependent on having a secure supply of critical minerals. Access to critical minerals is multi-faceted in that a secure supply is a geopolitical challenge, and an economic one where dependence on a single, or a few supplying countries is a major concern. From an employment point of view, the UK has the potential to be a major centre of adding value to critical minerals and potentially be able to support the UK net zero transition and develop a significant export level for key green technologies. As is usual, the report provides a very readable summary of the status, government policy response (or lack of it), and what related countries are doing.
Heat and Retrofit
Review of air source heat pump noise emission, permitted development guidance, and regulation
DESNZ Research Paper No. 2023/046, November 2023.
Little by little the potential barriers to the installation of heat pumps are being tackled, and this report looks at three of them. It would be good if all manufacturers aimed to hit the lowest noise levels for all European markets.
Transport
Critical issues in transportation for 2024 and beyond
National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine, January 2024.
A timely review of the issues; we were taken by Figure 18, Employment in transportation and related industry firms by type of firm, 2021. What struck us is the scale of transportation which takes in sales and service across to logistics and warehousing, and manufacturing (only 14% of employment). This shows the complexity of the skills transition to a net zero state across transportation.
Net zero and the UK aviation sector
Environment Audit Committee, House of Commons, HC 404 December 2023.
A comprehensive review of UK aviation ahead of its inclusion in the 6th carbon budget and the mandate coming into force in 2025. Employment is significant in aviation (230,000 directly) and three times larger when indirect employment is also included. As the shift in the aviation sector changes there will be skills implications – not a focus for this report – and it would be good to see these teased out and also the behavioural shift that is probably required amongst passengers too.
NHS Net Zero Travel and Transport Strategy
NHS, October 2023.
An organisation the size of the NHS engaging with net zero in a major way is going to have a major impact across the UK. Currently the transport fleet is made up of 20,800 vehicles and this strategy largely focuses on their transition to net zero and their use. This has a huge skills implications as they shift and drive change across their suppliers.
Pot pourri
Attitudes towards net zero. Insights from MP and public polling
Cavendish Consulting, November 2023.
This report is a little worrying as it shows splits and divides between Labour and Conservative MPs, and the public and MPs. One of the challenges we all face is developing a consensus across all groups during the next few years.
Climate Change and Political Priorities: What the British public think (sic)
The Policy Institute, Kings College London, IPSOS, and the Mission Zero Coalition, December 2023.
Simple message: the British public does see climate change as a major issue, but it ranks joint 11th on a list of 20 policy areas (and where the natural environment ranks 17th). For us the survey says there is a long way to go to develop a true consensus on climate change, and more importantly climate action, across all age groups, and across all political allegiances (as viewed by voting intensions).
AI for Decarbonisation: Assessing the UK landscape for artificial intelligence and its use in decarbonisation
ADViCE (AI innovation for Decarbonisation’s Virtual Centre of Excellence), Energy Systems Catapult, Digital Catapult, and The Alan Turing Institute, December 2023.
One simple message hit us as we read this report: net zero and AI are interdependent, and says the digitisation of the economy is a wave of change which underpins achieving net zero, and moving into a full circular economy. We suggest reading this report alongside AI activity in UK business (by Capital Economics for DCMS) which shows the rate of AI application by sector across the UK’s economy.
Starting a national conversation on the heat transition in Scotland: introducing a strategic framework for public engagement, 2023-2026
Scottish Government, December 2023.
A well-structured and helpful framework for anyone seeking to progress the uptake of key decarbonising technologies across the public.