The Green Edge Reports Roundup, August-24: Part Two - Sectors
Continuing with our selection of reports and other publications from this month’s reading list.
Part Two of our crop of green reports from this months reading list. Also see Part One - General.
֎ Reports we feel are particularly worth a look.
Energy
The Future of Energy
Richard Black, Melville House, August 2024
A very readable book that picks out five core technologies: wind turbines and solar panels; batteries and other storage systems; electric cars; and heat pumps; and green hydrogen. Once these five technologies are scaled, costs will fall which is one of the major drawbacks of hugely expensive alternatives such as nuclear and CCUS. One message for us: the technologies are known, they are tried and tested, the challenge now is mobilisation and delivery but that requires extensive co-operation and coordination.
Hydrogen
Hydrogen Workforce Assessment
Green Jobs Delivery Group – Hydrogen Task and Finish Group, Cogent and Hydrogen Skills Alliance, July 2024
Apart from the work in the Midlands (see below), hydrogen is an energy source which is under-researched. This assessment, as a part of the Green Jobs Delivery Group, finds there could be 28,675 direct hydrogen jobs and 64,500 indirect ones from the development of the hydrogen economy in the UK by 2030.
Green and Hydrogen Jobs in the Midlands
Warwick IER and Hydex for the Midlands Engine, July 2023
We find this a good starting point to understanding the impact the development of the hydrogen economy might have in the UK, and then the associated occupations and skills. It would be good to update this report as we understand more about the committed levels of investment to hydrogen beyond just production, but within manufacturing (i.e. places of hydrogen use).
The UK Hydrogen Innovation Opportunity: Hydrogen Technology Roadmap
Hydrogen Innovation Initiative, HVM Catapult, April 2024
For anyone wanting to understand the pathways of development for hydrogen across the major pillars of this nascent industry, this report is a valuable and detailed resource. It would be good now at add a human capability line to each of the charts to understand the skills requirements going forward, and then translate this into the potential scale, or at least an informed view as to the range of people involved.
Oil and Gas
Oil and Gas Transition Plans: A User Guide
Carbon Tracker, July 2024
A really helpful guide. The principles that underpin it are applicable to other parts of the net zero transition as alternative sources of energy displace oil and gas.
Solar
First Solar: US Economic Impact. The value of American vertically integrated solar manufacturing at scale.
University of Louisiana for First Solar, February 2024
Most of the interest in the UK for solar employment is on the installations side (admittedly with some R&D), but in this study we get some feel for the scale of the impact of just one major manufacturer can have. The nameplate capacity of First Solar by 2026 will be 14 gigawatts and that will mean they consume 15% of all US float glass production. Currently, First Solar is responsible for generating over 16,000 jobs (from all sources of which 3,000 are employed directly by First Solar) and this rises to 30,000 by 2026 (excluding 5,700+ from construction). First Solar’s edge? R&D and driving product performance and value. We also see here a classic, future net zero business drawing upon the traditional ones like glass and steel.
Inflection Point: The State of US PV Solar Manufacturing and What’s Next
Solar Energy Manufacturers for America Coalition, Quarter 1, 2024
Two elements of this white paper really strike us: first, the dependence on the US PV industry on Chinese suppliers; and second, the growth in solar employment across the US over the last 15 years (from 100,000 to 300,000+) but the employment in manufacturing remaining largely static. By far the bulk in employment growth has been for installations of all types.
Solar Energy UK’s submission to the Environmental Audit Committee’s Green Jobs Inquiry
Solar Energy UK, January 2021
While a little dated, the section on jobs in the solar energy sector give us some useful ratios expressing jobs linked to the scale of the solar installation(s). We think there is value in collating these ratios together and keeping them in everyone’s mind when we discuss new energy generating and distribution installations going forward.
Agriculture & Nature
Embracing nature: Climate change adaptation at the Wildlife Trusts Progress Report 2023-24
The Wildlife Trusts, August 2024
We were surprised to read that drought was seen as the largest climate threat ahead of pollution and invasive species. Provides a UK-wide view of progress and the issues. Highlighted is the £40mn investment in a new programme sponsored by Aviva. It would be good to see the potential for biodiversity net gain becoming part of the thinking here along with the skills and jobs associated with managing the adaptation of nature across the Wildlife Trusts sites.
Fifty years of change across British broadleaf woodlands: A resurvey and analysis of the “Bunce” sites, 1971-’01-’21
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology for the Woodland Trust, August 2024
Our interest here is having a 50-year view of what is happening across c100 sites, and helps to inform the need to manage natural habitats. This report notes many of the changes we have all seen: less elm, less ash, and an increase in holly. Our request here would be to translate the 50 years of observations and data into a form of biodiversity net gain statement.
Driving ‘natural’ renewal: The progressive case for restoring the natural environment
IPPR, August 2024
While skills, jobs and employment are not the focus of this report, implicit in its analysis is that nature has a major contribution to make towards the UK’s net zero targets (this includes food production and security), and as a result will generate employment. The scale of the employment might be debated (high based on analyses in Scotland) but the range and quality of employment is not - these are good, long term jobs.
Circular economy
֎The Circular Economy at Work: Jobs and Skills for London’s Low Carbon Future
ReLondon, June 2022
The headline numbers in this report are huge: the circular economy in London is due to increase from £11bn to £24bn by 2030, driving the growth in the levels of employment from 231,000 to 515,000 (with the core roles increasing from 93,000 to 194,000). But the number which really caught our attention was the ratio between 386 circular economy jobs per 10,000 tonnes of waste. This all fits well with the CIWM Report completed earlier last year.
Plastics Pacts: Scaling Impact
WRAP and Ellen Macarthur Foundation, April 2024
Graphically shows what can be achieved with some focus and attention, drawing on case studies from around the world. Understanding the skills required to make avoidance and re-use (capture?) work would be useful to complement our understanding of the growing circular economy.
Reducing Plastic Waste
POSTNote 724, July 2024
Plastic is a part of nearly everyone’s life and we touch it multiple times every day. This briefing captures the whole process from chemical composition through to end-of-life management. In terms of skills the implications are vast as they run across chemical producers through to processors and then right down the whole demand chain, and will require major users’ sectors e.g. construction, textiles etc. to be more active. Substitution is possible in many areas e.g. packaging, and also food service, and this is already widely evident.
Construction/retrofitting/built environment
֎Building Skills for the Future
London Homes Coalition, July 2024
This is an important report and annex which builds on the work of major social housing providers and their contractors across London, and it goes into greater detail around occupations. It is worth noting that this part of the construction sector in London makes up around 10% of the workforce. What this report also demonstrates is that complex, large scale skills issues need a high level of co-operation across asset owners (the housing association) and construction contractors.
Towards a climate-resilient built environment
Building Performance Institute Europe (BPIE), 2024
What strikes us here is the quality of the infographics covering the multiple complex relationships that impact the built environment and need integrating into any future view of managing an estate or a single building. The infographics would fit well into an introductory education programme on the topic.
Creative
Super-low carbon live music: a roadmap for the UK live music sector to play its part in tackling climate change crisis
Tyndall Centre, June 2021
Sustainability and circular thinking in live music events! A reminder that sustainability reaches across all parts of society and the economy, and the net zero event is now becoming a selling point and a badge of honour.
Engineering and Manufacturing
֎A Spotlight on Skills, Talent and Workforce Development: Battery Manufacturing for Electrification
Ontario Centre of Innovation, Ontario Vehicle Innovation Network (OVIN), September 2023
Excellent report capturing the occupations and skills for battery manufacturing (like ALBATTS for Europe), covering the period out to 2032.
֎A Spotlight on Skills, Talent and Workforce Development: EV Motor for Electrification
Ontario Centre of Innovation, Ontario Vehicle Innovation Network (OVIN), October 2023.
A sister publication to the one above. Worth tracking the work of OVIN as it has direct relevance to developments across the UK for EV and batteries.
Reimagining labour to close the expanding UK semiconductor talent gap
McKinsey and Co, August 2024
Not on the hot topics list, but AI-based chips are integral to the management of many clean technologies. Perhaps more pointedly, the competition for highly talented engineers required in renewables is likely to become more intense, and the semiconductor industry is likely to a winner given current salaries and work. There is also an interesting side point here around the investment in major chip plants and renewables energy - the Rocky Mountain Institute has pursued this line of enquiry.
Fashion/Textiles
֎What fuels fashion? Special edition of the Global Fashion Transparency Index ranking 250 of the world’s largest brands on decarbonisation and related disclosure 2024 Edition.
Fashion Revolution, August 2024
A powerful report and a timely reminder of the distance some sectors are needing to travel to decarbonise their businesses and supply chains. Two things struck us: first, a call being made for a minimum level of expenditure (2% of annual revenues) on a fair transition away from fossil fuels; and second, the numbers of people the sector needs to recruit to deliver on its goals of being fossil free. For us, fashion and the broader textiles sector should feel the pressure of young, well-informed consumers expecting more from the brands they are buying (too) frequently.
Textiles 2030 roadmap: Transforming our industry for the planet
WRAP, April 2021
A powerful document and process, bringing multiple businesses together across the UK supply, use and disposal of clothing and textiles. The timetable covering ‘Circularity Pathway Milestones’ breaks down into design, circular business models, and closing the loop on materials. It would be good to translate this document into a competence framework for the various stages and steps over the 10-year period covered. An evaluation of progress would be good to see, and we have not been able to find this as yet.
Sustainability of the fashion sector: follow-up inquiry
Evidence from the Centre for Sustainable Fashion and Social Purpose Lab at the University of the Arts, London to the Environmental Audit Committee, April 2024
A follow-up the EAC’s 2019 report, this brief submission (8 pages) provides a useful summary of what is happening across textiles and fashion. A useful background document.
Business of Fashion, Textiles and Technology. Mapping the UK Fashion, Textiles, and Technology Ecosystem. Identifying opportunities for investment, research and development, business growth, job creation and tackling skills gaps.
University of the Arts London, July 2021
A significant piece of research across 2,400 SMEs giving one clear message: skills gaps abound across the sector. We are also struck by the scale, spread and major clusters across the UK. If this piece of work were to be repeated it would be good if they used the near-real time industrial classification system of The Data City based in Leeds.
Food
Food waste
POST Brief 60, July 2024
A comprehensive view of food waste across the whole supply chain (1,024 references quoted), and so a great introduction to the topic. In the UK alone, 10.7 million tonnes of food worth £22bn is wasted every year - meanwhile, 8.4 million people in the UK are living in food poverty. Globally food waste accounts for 8-10 of greenhouse emissions. Just think about those huge numbers for a minute, and consider the impact of prices, availability, and the time and effort spent by farmers, distributors, processors and retailers in the process. There are huge gains to be made here by greatly ramping-up prevention and eradication of waste at the outset before we extend our efforts to re-use food waste (e.g. energy production through bio-digestors). A mindshift is called for throughout the industry.
Opening the window to the food industry’s future: the world’s first factory growing food out of thin air launches
Solar Foods, April 2024
We don’t normally include press releases, but this story is potentially very important as seeking to revolutionise food production and decarbonising it at the same time. It would also release vast amounts of land for other use and address food shortage issues. With our interest in skills and jobs, we see a huge shift from land to factory, and high-tech pharma/brewing style manufacturing. We have to wonder if the technology will be licensed to existing major food and pharma manufacturers with facilities around the world that could be adapted to make Solein.
Decarbonisation of heat across the food and drink manufacturing sector
Food and Drink Federation, June 2020
Builds on the 2015 report and analysis, starting in 2020 and taking us through to 2050. A useful structure and set of details for a major UK industry. While the report focuses on the decarbonisation of manufacturing, it would be useful to put it into the context of changes in the trends in diets and nutrition. Just as we have seen in the auto sector, with multiple suppliers having their core products and services ending within the next decade or more, we have to think how this might apply to the food manufacturing industry as individual food stuffs increasingly have their emissions attached to them.
Forestry
Better Forestry Conference Report
Forest Policy Group, July 2024.
Skills are woven into the fabric of this event and report. Reading it, we get the feeling of an inclusive, creative and positive process, which says a lot about the forestry industry in Scotland. We would like to see a specific group looking into skills for the industry.
The National Wood Strategy: A path towards a sustainable forest products industry in England
National Wood Strategy, December 2023
Skills are well covered here, and will be increasing demand if the targets of forest cover are to be achieved and the UK become less dependent on imported timber. Workforce and skills are one of the six strategic goals (page 50). With the growth of ELMS across UK farms and the development of rewilding, forestry skills will be needed in greater numbers than estimated here. For a great summary of the strategy take a look at the Confor summary.
Marine
The Design, Installation and Operations of Automation Robots: Including welding, joining and inspection in sub-optimal spaces within the shipbuilding sector
National Manufacturing Institute of Scotland as a part of the Workforce Foresighting Hub, July 2024
This report highlights sustainable manufacturing as an emerging sustainable skills requirement, but more important to us is the use of ESCO (the European competence database), O*NET (the US-based occupational information system), and the IfATE (Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education) standards database to underpin their analysis. The methodology being developed here is very important, and could fill the future skills void that was being addressed through the work of the HVM Catapult’s work.
Advancing Zero-Emission Fuels in Washington’s Shipping Sector: Roadmap to 2050
RMI, July 2024
A useful evaluation of the options and challenges facing a series of ports and the wider marine sector in Washington State in the USA. Strongly illustrates the long-term process and scale of the changes being faced in the sector. One positive aspect of a longer term roadmap is that skills and wider manpower issues can be managed over 20 years but is reliant on taking some key decisions over the next few years.
Transport
֎Navigating the skills shortages: Annual Rail Workforce Survey 2023
NSAR, October 2023.
This survey has been running since 2016 and feeds in the rail sector’s Skills Intelligence Model. Worth noting the impact of electrification, and this is resulting in the sector’s largest skills shortage. We were also introduced to the Scientific Approach to the Talent Pipeline (SATP) which could be well be adopted by other sectors.
Road and rail transportation – batteries v H2: How cars, buses, trains and trucks will decarbonise
ReThink Energy, August 2024
A useful report and analysis looking at the balance of factors which will tip some forms of transport towards hydrogen or batteries. Trains look like a good bet given their predictability and geography.
Rail and Urban Transport Review: An assessment and ambition for a new Government
Urban Transport Group/ARUP, August 2024
A key point regarding skills highlighted in this report is the skills redirection from rail electrification to electricity utilities. This is an issue we know was at the centre of the Green Jobs Delivery Group’s work, and hopefully their Net Zero and Nature Workforce Plan will address this issue. Individual responses during the consultation phase of this review are also worth looking at, like the one from the Chartered Institute of Highways and Transportation.
Automated Vehicles
POST Briefing 62, August 2024
Automation of vehicles, most notably trucks and small vans, could be one way to meet a growing skills shortage in many countries, and will probably result in better use of scarce resources. Jobs will be generated on the development and manufacturing side, but these are relatively small - 12,250 is the number quoted in this briefing. In some sectors we are already seeing automation taking place, like airports, and in agriculture with precision farming. This is also an area where we are seeing several major technologies coming together resulting in potential environmental gains.