The Green Edge Reports Roundup, April-23
Continuing with our selection of reports and other publications from this month’s reading list
Another long list this month - we didn’t even have room to squeeze our usual picture in!
Jobs & Skills
Green Jobs: Rapid Evidence Review
Nesta and Behavioural Insights Team, Mar 2023
A very useful review looking at the definitions of green jobs and getting quickly into the potential barriers around green jobs growth and entry. It picks up on the whole issue of shortfalls: the labour market in the UK will have a shortfall of 2.5-2.6mn by 2030 while around much the same timeframe around 1.7mn jobs will be created across the green sectors, of which 1.3mn will require a technical qualification (largely STEM-based).
This raises a key question around the competition for labour, and with STEM-based skills and knowledge allied to digital. We need analyses at the macro level as it brings into focus the question: where will the green workers come from? Hopefully the Net Zero Workforce Plan and Strategy will tackle this question over the coming months and include it in its report in 2024.
Skills Demand for the Future Economy
Skills Future Singapore, 2022
Covers four sectors: green, digital, care, and Industry 4.0. Under green, four domains focused on: environmental and sustainability management (14 priority skills); energy, resource circularity, and decarbonisation (18); green infrastructure and mobility (9); and sustainable finance (5). Using insightful analysis, the green priority skills are then charted for their growth (in demand) and their transferability.
An excellent analysis and a model we should adopt in the UK. The data are downloadable and there are a series of case studies.
The Green Transition in the Labour Market: How to ensure equal access to green skills across the education and training system.
Report by PPMi for the European Expert Network on Economics in Education, European Commission, Jan 2023
Great review of the characteristics, taxonomies, and frameworks for green(er) jobs and skills making full use of ESCO, ONET and related systems.
Green Skills and Knowledge Concepts: Labelling the ESCO Classification.
European Commission, Jan 2022
A green ESCO with 381 ESCO skills, 185 knowledge concepts, and 5 transversal skills. It draws from multiple country studies and systems: EU, France, Australia, UK, USA, Canada, Spain, ILO, OECD and the UN. A very important base data set, worth comparing and combining with those developed in the USA (O*NET) and Singapore.
Apprenticeships for Greener Economies and Societies
CEDEFOP and OECD, May 2022
This is a rich document, and we just draw your attention to three figures/tables: key competences for sustainability (Table 1, page 26); learning pyramid and overall green competence framework (Figure 9, page 71); and, a new competence framework for the energy intensive industry (Figure 2, page 79). Taken together we are starting to see the emergence of a true, robust framework for green skills and competences. IT would be good to take the country and corporate experiences described here and translate them into a UK context and use the materials from IfATE.
Future Skills League Table 2022
Kingston University, London, 2022
While the table of top skills is fairly routine, there’s an interesting piece on a Future Skills Framework. Within this framework it proposes a Future Skills Council modelled on the Creative Industries Council and not dissimilar to the Green Jobs Delivery Group, bringing together key ministers to ensure an integrated and co-ordinated approach to skills development through a series of activities, regulations, and funding. This linear model is something akin to what the LSIP process is seeking to achieve at local level, and probably is also a part of the Investment Zone policy which positions universities as key players.
Bridging the skills gaps: fuelling careers and the economy in Singapore
Economist Impact supported by Google, Mar 2023
Based on a large-scale survey of Singapore-based employers (there is also a related survey for multiple Asian countries). Interesting to see the priority ranking of skills: 69% of employers putting digital at the top of their list and only 12% putting green there, with a higher proportion of green skills gained on-line. Seeing digital and green combining with environmental and sustainability data science and digital capabilities can’t be too far off.
Environmental Regulations and Green Skills: An Empirical Exploration
Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Vol 5, No 4, 2018, 713-753
A little dated but new to us. A fascinating study which splits green skills into those needed for design and production (engineering), and implementation and monitoring (management). Finds that regulations do not impact employment levels but do introduce and modify green skills. It would be good to have this study updated, using ESCO for a European view.
Beyond Waste: Essential skills for a greener tomorrow
Chartered Institute of Waste Management, Mar 2023
A practical view of the future skills and employment requirements of the ‘waste industry’ or better seen as core to the circular economy. Shows huge growth in the industry over the coming decades. Provides some very useful employment ratios linking the volume of waste to the number of jobs required.
Data Science Skills in the Energy Sector: Survey Results
Energy Systems Catapult, Mar 2023
Two things strike us: the issue of competition for scarce data science skills; and the interdependency between digital and green skills for Net Zero. A thorough piece of work worth building on with complementary data from Lightcast and Data City to delve into the skills interdependencies within and across occupations and businesses.
Strategic Guidance to the Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education (IfATE)
DfE, Mar 2023
The annual letter to the CEO of IfATE. We find in Annex A: Priorities for 2023-2024 a mention of green technologies – the only other technology to get a mention is digital. The UFS is tasked with supporting and informing IfATE as to where next.
Sectoral Skills Intelligence and Strategy for the European Battery Sector (Release 2)
ALBATTS, Mar 2023
Great summary of the skills and roles in the battery sector: covers sector-specific competences, cross-sectoral knowledge and skills plus academic competences. Lists out 18 technician and 41 engineer roles. An excellent resource if you dig further into the skills cards behind the roles, and a good start point for anyone in the UK battery industry.
Independent Report of the Offshore Wind Champion: Seizing our Opportunities
Tim Pick report for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, Apr 2023
Really useful overview of offshore wind and the actions required to ensure it remains as a leading industry. Captures points and approaches being progressed by the Offshore Wind Industry Council and the Energy and Utility Skills Partnership, and makes a couple of interesting points: with the move to flow-based offshore wind farms there is a real opportunity to create a global skills set; and the constraints which might lead to make or buy decisions, which has profound skills implications.
Responding to the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) Annual Progress Report 2022 Recommendations
HM Government, Mar 2023
327 recommendations to respond to here. Skills get covered in a number of the recommendations and the Government responses (18, 23, 37, 46, 81, 97, 102, 104, 123, 133, 135, 250, 252 and 291, as far as we can see). We see skills for specific areas being addressed: buildings, public sector, food system, agriculture, flooding, etc.
I was good to see the whole issue of skills capacity being noted for heat and building strategy; this is an area which needs pursuing across Net Zero and into the emerging circular economy. It would have been useful if the recommendations and responses could have been RAG coded, with the CCC reviewing the responses and RAG rating them back.
Powering Up Britain
HM Government, Mar 2023
We’ve already talked in a post and a podcast about The Net Zero Growth Plan, which was only part of the overall policy package released on Energy Security Day. But green skills get the biggest coverage here and we see key roles being defined for EUSP, ECITB, IfaTE and others. The Overview document contains a section on Supporting Green Skills, summarising the Government’s approach for a plan for power to be completed by Summer 2023 and used as template for other sectors to develop a national Net Zero and Nature Workforce Plan in 2024. And the Energy Security Plan shows key dates in the plan for energy skills, including CCUS with 50,000 jobs; nuclear and its skills strategy, and three emerging areas of floating offshore wind manufacturing investment; the Electricity Networks Commissioner will report on skills by June 2023; we’ll hear about hydrogen skills by July 2023; and on grid skills by the end of 2023.
Responding to the Independent Review of Net Zero’s Recommendations
HM Government, Mar 2023
In all 11 of the recommendations refers to skills (29/32/34/52/55/59/61/64/94/99/117) and the response places a major role for the Green Jobs Delivery Group. Detailed readers will note that many of the responses used here appear elsewhere in the many documents released on March 30th. It was a shame that a broader, more strategic set of responses were not derived from the long list, particularly on skills, and tied back to other major education and skills policies.
Business Capital: Seven Steps for Climate Action
Business in the Community, 2021
Step 4 is to ensure all employees have the skills they need, and covers the need to engage before addressing the skills issues.
Routemap: Building Green Skills for a just transition to a net zero resilient future
Business in the Community, 2023
A practical and informative document stressing the need to engage and develop real understanding about the Net Zero future and the transition towards delivering it. Supports the Step 4 noted above.
Community Energy Member/Investor Reach and Impact Report
Community Energy England, Jun 2022
Shows the scale and spread of community groups developing and implementing energy schemes, and behind each of the 300+ groups the large number of volunteers sharing their skills and expertise. Volunteers and community groups are an almost totally ignored set of people in the green economy. Their skills are important to deliver specific projects whilst at the same time helping changing people’s minds and building momentum.
Community Energy. State of the Sector Report
Community Energy Scotland, Community Energy England, and Community Energy Wales, 2022
Details the extent and scale of the sector. Would be interesting to know how the skills shared through this largely voluntary network generate new and additional ones in the businesses and organisations they engage with.
Skills for the low carbon transition
Vivid Economics for HSBC Sustainable Finance, Jun 2021
Focuses on four sectoral transitions: low carbon construction; the electrification of transport; low carbon electricity generation; and sustainable land use and forestry. Useful as it looks at transition skill gaps, fundamental skills, and applied skills, and identifies fundamental skills might be missing in the power sector. Describes important overlaps in the four transition skill sets, with many of the incremental jobs created by the green transition having an ‘easy to close’ skills gap. Well worth having a copy as you think about which green skills framework works for your sector or region.
European Year of Skills 2023
European Parliament, Mar 2023
Highlights skills for sustainable growth: perhaps a theme we could develop in the UK?
The Real Work. On the mystery of mastery.
Adam Gopnik, Riverun/Quercus Books, Mar 2023
A fascinating set of personal experiences by the author learning skills from a series of masters. A few core principles emerge which might well be relevant to accelerating green skills development as people transition to new careers. Worth reading alongside Richard Sennett’s book The Craftsman.
Carbon Budget Delivery Plan
HM Government, Mar 2023
Shows the magnitude of the task of matching policies to sectors (lists 48 quantified policies and a further 191 sector-policy links) but in the end it falls short of the UK’s needs. Would be good to translate these listings to skills and jobs in the green economy.
A Guide to Job Crafting
Tailored Thinking, Mar 2021
As more jobs need green tasks and skills, having a process through which this can happen is an important organisation tool. Job crafting is one such tool. Anyone who has been through the various periods of job design and socio-technical analysis followed by the TQM/ TPM will know job crafting by different titles.
Revenue Grant Determination Letter for Devolution of the Adult Education Budget for Financial Year 2023-24
DfE
An important letter listing the AEB for each of the major English cities and combined authorities: nearly £800mn in all which isn’t too much i.e. £2.50 per head in London.
No train, no gain. An investigation into the quality of apprenticeships in England.
EDSK London, Nov 2022
Comes to a simple conclusion and recommends we should boost the quality of apprenticeships, importantly saying a curriculum should be published for all apprenticeships. This is quite a task as there are over 800 standards managed by IfATE, but anything which drives the number, the quality, and the profile of apprentices can only be to the good.
Retrofit / Heat Pumps
Train local, work local, stay local. Retrofit, growth and levelling-up
IPPR, Sep 2022
Table 2.2 (p13) covers the employment (direct and indirect) for a major push on retrofitting across the UK: by 2030, 400,000 direct jobs and 500,000 indirect ones; and by 2050, 1.2mn direct jobs, and 1.5 indirect ones. These are large numbers and are worth road-testing a little but whatever; retrofitting will put a huge squeeze on the labour market and will need careful planning.
Heat Pump Investment Roadmap. Leading the way to net zero.
DESNZ and DBT, Apr 2023
Two important points here: the numbers of heat pump installations rising from 55,000 in 2021 to 600,000 in 2028, and 1.9mn in 2035, and the associated skills development support. Together they beg the question: is this enough skills development to meet these very ambitious targets? No mention of new builds being mandated to have heat pumps installed, nor anything about ground source heat pumps, nor heat networks. Perhaps these will come in a later announcement.
Heat Pump Investment Accelerator Competition Scheme Guidance (Draft)
DESNZ, Mar 2023
A scheme seeking to support UK-based manufacturers of heat pumps and for them to be commercialised by March 2026. The total fund is £30mn and each project is capped at £15mn. Our interest is in the potential to boost skills, and this can be seen in the bid evaluation criteria which asks for evidence on the ease of installation and associated training. A 7-year period of evaluation is stated (this is rare in policy and competition calls) and shows we should see the picture emerge post-2026.
Heating and Cooling Installer Study (HaCIS)
BEIS, Jan 2023
The Main Report in this package identifies business; skills and knowledge; and external as the three main barriers, with key concerns amongst installers being heat pump affordability and the lack of demand. Skills for installation, operation, energy system selection advice, and maintenance are all important. Interesting that energy systems design was not raised. One question we were left with is that of capacity of the current actual and potential installer base to meet the heat pump installation targets. The HaCIS page also contains a Literature Review which contains several messages, including quality and lack of standardisation of training being considered an issue. We suppose this might be addressed with the Heat Pump Association’s own course launched in 2021. Oh, and there’s a Technical Report for geeks like us. Overall we’re left with the view that greater incentives are needed to drive the process and build interest.
Market Report 2022
European Heat Pump Association, 2022
Provides a summary of sales and stock levels of heat pumps and their types. Shows the huge number of heat pumps being installed and that other European countries have adjusted to developing the relevant skills for their installation.
Labour Market
Low carbon and renewable energy economy, UK: 2021
ONS, Feb 2023
Latest set of data from ONS at sector and nation levels mainly. It’s a shame it doesn’t drop down to the regions or highlight key green occupations.
Evaluation of Skills Bootcamps Wave 2 Implementation Report
DfE, Mar 2023
A key part of England’s response to skilling and upskilling for those seeking to (re-)enter work or prepare for a potential career move. This report covers 16,000 trainees and 2,648 companies. The eight conclusions point to the need to sharpen up expectations, learning and assessment. Bootcamps are positioned as important to policy delivery. Green gets a mention but not much.
Changes in Working Patterns During the State of Emergency
Recruit Work Institute, Japan, Aug 2020
Walks into working patterns post-Covid and raises the demographic impact on reducing the capacity of the labour market to maintain some services, like logistics. Shows the importance of viewing the whole labour market and its capacity to cover the transition to net zero.
GPTs are GPTs: An early look at the labour market impact potential of large language models
Open AI, Open Research, and University of Pennsylvania, Mar 2023
A key finding of this piece of work is that around 80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. Would be interesting to extend the analysis into green tasks and green occupations and their exposure to change.
The potentially large effects of artificial intelligence on economic growth
Goldman Sachs, Mar 2023
Continues the tradition of using O*NET data to use its task component to examine work displacement and replacement by AI. Find nearly 66% of occupations and around 25% of work tasks could be potentially automated by AI. It would be helpful to run a green theme through the analysis and see the interdependencies between green and AI.
Infrastructure
Infrastructure Progress Review 2023
National Infrastructure Commission, Mar 2023
Overlaps with many of the interest areas of the CCC and mentions both the Inflation Reduction Act in the USA and the EU’s Net Zero Industry Act in the context of developing a competitive, green infrastructure. While skills aren’t mentioned, the sectors covered are of interest to anyone seeking to understand a key element of net zero investment across digital, transport, energy, flood resilience, water and waste.
Levelling Up / Regional Development
Levelling up policies and the failure to learn
Journal of the Academy of Special Sciences, Apr 2023
There are two simple, powerful messages here: there is a lack of feedback and learning across local and national initiatives, and agencies, and that evaluation needs to be built in from the start; and policy formation should be a co-creation process. The article contains four excellent figs capturing UK industrial and regional economic policy development, and helping place the current abolition of the LEPs in England, the loss of the Audit Commission, etc.
State of the North 2023 - Looking out to level up: How the North and the UK measure up.
IPPR, Jan 2023
Green and levelling up are intertwined, as are skills and productivity, and we see this showing through strongly in this report. The 12 levelling up missions are RAG rated and a series of case studies are instructive (particularly the one on Rotterdam). It would be good to see some assessment of the contribution the green economy could make to levelling up, and we might see this emerge from the various LSIPs as they emerge over the next few months.
Towards a Green Jobs and Skills Roadmap for Reading
Report by Shared Intelligence for the Reading Economy and Destination Agency, Oct 2022
A pragmatic first-step report pulling together some existing data for Reading at the start of a local process which encompasses green along with the other main pillars of the local economy. It would be helpful if these local studies could be pooled and drawn together to create a regional and national picture.
Policy
Net Zero Policy Tracker: March 2023 Update
Green Alliance
An excellent monitoring service from the Green Alliance and just turning to page 3 we see the picture of progress: 13% of emissions don’t have a policy to reduce them and for the rest, 23% only have ambition, 36% are under consultation, and only 28% are confirmed. Wouldn’t it be great to have this picture on the skills and manpower front?
Net Zero Society: Scenarios and Pathways - How could societal changes affect the path to net zero?
Foresight programme, Government Office for Science, Apr 2023
A fascinating report, released around Energy Security Day, which goes through four scenarios: atomised, metropolitan, self-preservation, and slow lane societies. We find that metropolitan is the “low risk” scenario. Each scenario is viewed through four sectors: built environment, travel and transport, work and industry, and food and land use.
Several points are worth noting from the analysis. First, energy reduction is critical for a lower cost, lower risk pathway to net zero. Energy reduction covers both energy efficiency and circular economy principles. Second, innovation is also critical to net zero in providing solution options and cost reductions. Third, public engagement is critical where lifestyle choices are being proposed. Fourth, large societal changes meed support for reskilling, and a major focus on education and training. Fifth, engagement of the public to make and take net zero decisions will require incentives, supportive infrastructure investment, high levels of consultation, and policies that have been fully considered and not disguised. It will be interesting to see if the UK Government follows its own advice and findings as scripted in this report.
Progress in adapting to climate change: 2023 report to Parliament
CCC, Mar 2023
The usual exhaustive and robust analysis by the CCC. Page 13 gives us a single infographic covering policy and implementation progress across 13 key areas; only three (water, transport, and towns and cities) have any green in them, and that’s all on the policy side. One simple conclusion to draw from this might be that if so little progress is being made then progress must be equally poor on the skills front too. It would be great if the CCC added a skills assessment to these sector and place based assessments.
Powerbook. A Playbook for Energy Security.
Britain Remade, Mar 2023
Highlights the lack of speed for planning and grid connections holding back progress towards net zero and energy security. Critical for skills and manpower planning is knowing the broad mix of energy sources, investment levels and their timing. Clarity across wind (off and onshore), solar, nuclear, storage and grid would help to provide national skills planning too, and perhaps is one for the DESNZ or Green Jobs Delivery Group to pick up.
New Economic Models of Energy Innovation and Transition: Addressing new questions and providing better answers.
EEIST, University of Exeter, 2023
While the report is about applying new models and viewing their efficacy, there is a fascinating piece of labour market transitions which could be built upon.
Post-Implementation Review of Environmental Law
Office for Environmental Protection, Mar 2023
While this report covers all Government departments, it focuses on DEFRA and finds it lacking. In fact, in 62.5% of cases the OEP could not find a post-implementation report. They RAG rate all relevant laws and it makes for sad reading. As legislation and regulation often drive skills, seeing what is working and what is not is useful background.
Sectors
Hydrogen
The Hydrogen Powerhouse? Demystifying the North’s hydrogen economy
IPPR, Apr 2023
Covers the North of England’s three main centres for hydrogen: Teesside, Merseyside and Humberside. Links industrial decarbonisation to hydrogen and explores the role with transport, rightly eliminating it from domestic heating on any large scale. Two clear messages on skills: without a robust local skills system local people will not prosper from hydrogen; and skills for hydrogen look remarkably like those for the chemical industry as a whole.
Energy
Energy Systems and Just Transition – Independent Analysis
Scottish Government, Mar 2023
Details of a project in Scotland and its various components. See report below.
Just Transition Review of the Scottish Energy Sector. Summary Report.
EY, February 2023
Moves the transition forward and views both skills and jobs, and the balance between oil and gas and the transition towards a low carbon future (see figure on page 8).
Solar PV
Solar PV Global Supply Chains: An IEA Special Report
International Energy Agency, August 2022
Identifies skills and labour shortages as being a barrier to growth for solar PV manufacturing, which is mainly based in China (75+%) and Asia (14%) with only a minimal presence in Europe (3%) and the USA (1%). The picture is more complicated than this top line set of figures suggests: in Europe inverters are a significant part of the manufacturing base (50%) and racking and mounting in the USA (20%). We also see signs of new onshoring of solar PV in Brazil, India, Turkey and South Africa. In terms of jobs generation there are 1,300 FTE jobs for each gigawatt with factories now hitting 10-20 gigawatts output.
Transport
The carbon footprint of scientific visibility
Environmental Research Letters, Nov 2022
A difficult message for academic scientists: those seeking to build their careers need the visibility by attending conferences and clocking-up air miles. It will be interesting to see how this aspect of academic life is going to be tackled.