The Green Edge Reports Roundup, Apr-24: Part Two - Sectors
Continuing with our selection of reports and other publications from this month’s reading list.
Part Two of our crop of green reports from this months reading list. Also see Part One - General.
As usual, you can find all these reports and more in our searchable reports list on The Green Edge Data Portal.
֎ Reports we feel are particularly worth a look.
Energy
The 2-year Anniversary of the British Energy Security Strategy
ECIU, April 2024.
A useful status report covering lowering energy demand in houses, renewables, nuclear, hydrogen, networks and grids, grid connection and transmission. The ECIU analysts scored progress at 3/10 which is not impressive over a two-year period.
Energy: Financing the Future. Policy Research 2024.
UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association, April 2024.
Link
With the attractiveness reducing of the UK as regards a place to invest in renewable energy (EY Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index), this report (manifesto?) identifies three key areas for policy change: planning, grid capacity, and energy pricing. Tackling these three areas will unlock further investment, and generate green jobs and employment.
Household energy: buying British
ECIU, April 2024.
Interesting take on domestic energy use and the dependency on non-UK-sourced energy. What we don’t learn here is the degree to which off-grid energy self-sufficiency is emerging and how this varies throughout the year. This shift in energy dependency and self-sufficiency must be having some skills implications too as households move beyond the initial installation phase and into extending projects (adding batteries to a PV solar system), and then into maintenance and upgrade work. No doubt some of the detailed local retrofit/domestic decarbonisation studies might touch on this area.
Offshore Energies UK 2024 Industry Manifesto. Unleash our potential. Power our future. Choose a homegrown energy transition.
Offshore Energies UK, February 2024.
Gas and oil will remain part of the UK energy supply system alongside the fast-growing renewable alternatives, and there is huge potential to manage a skills transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Here skills feature heavily along with transition mechanisms e.g. the Energy Skills Passport, the call for greater co-ordination of skills (at least at the national level). To fully understand the transition across the North Sea it is worth looking at the Renewable UK growth plan and the work of the North Sea Transition Authority.
Germany launches planning gas grid retirements
Clean Energy Wire, 2024.
This report links to the appropriate Green Paper which talks about moving off the gas grid. Includes wholesale, local changes, and the development of largescale ground source heat network systems. One city that has announced such a shift is Augsburg which has of 300,000 people and could be a case study of the transition process.
Countdown to 2035: can we meet net zero energy systems targets?
Atkins Realis, January 2024.
Are we on target? Simple answer is “no”, and this paper charts progress, the gaps and challenges ahead. We find these forward-looking status reviews useful as they provide the basis of making employment forecasts and driving skills development and supply.
Transforming through uncertainty: Energy Industry Insights 2024 main report
DNV, 2024.
For us, the main message here is “imbalance” between the energy-rich and high investment countries racing ahead to move towards full renewables versus the rest of world. In our view this means a need to also manage a balancing up of skills as they are needed across the world which will need bi-partisan or multi-country agreements.
Community Energy
Barriers to Community Energy projects. Call for Evidence
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, April 2024.
We see community energy groups of high importance as they both develop and deliver clean tech energy projects, but they also raise awareness, understanding and capability to engage in clean tech insulation and heating solutions. Currently they engage 4,000+ people across the UK, and are a force to be harnessed by local authorities. This call for evidence closes on June 20th 2024.
Generation
Electric dreams: How can we decarbonise electricity without disadvantaging poorer families?
Resolution Foundation, April 2024.
The scale of the shift to a largely electricity-based economy is now being spelled out in multiple ways, and here we see the cost of the capital required for the investment. There is a major skills and jobs requirement for this shift (which will be covered in the Green Jobs Delivery Group’s report on the Net Zero Workforce Plan for the UK) but we wonder what the balance is with micro-grid growth and the demand for electricity for some consumers being close to zero. We agree there is a need for urgency here to resolve the funding for the next 10 years and how these costs will carried by consumers.
Grid
Supporting Advanced Conductor Deployment: Barriers and Policy Solutions
Energy Innovations and Grid Lab, April 2024.
Advanced conducting deployment is simply the replacement and upgrade of an existing conductor which is low-cost solution and greatly raises capacity. While this report is for the USA, the same must be true for the UK. Several specific education and training recommendations are listed here which cover both upskilling of existing staff and also the wider education of those involved in the planning of energy transmission.
Storage
Power plants on wheels: Balancing the grid with electric vehicles
ECIU, March 2023.
Discusses and qualifies the potential of vehicle-to-grid systems which has the potential for generating £700-800 in savings for the EV owner. Certainly plays into thinking around the nature of generation and grid system development over the coming years.
Tidal
Tidal Stream Technology Roadmap
ORE Catapult, March 2024.
Two main messages for us here: engineering skills are driving cost reduction of a key clean technology, and the overall approach to road mapping is a very helpful approach to develop a joint future view across a sector which helps inform investment, technology development, and skills programmes. It also shows the importance of the Catapult networks to the UK and its delivery of its net zero targets.
Wind
֎2024 Offshore Wind Industrial Growth Plan: Expanding the horizon of the UK’s offshore wind supply chain
Barringa for Renewable UK, Offshore Wind Industry Council, Crown Estate and Crown Estate Scotland, April 2024.
Anyone doubting the growth potential for renewable energy across the UK and across the world should read this report. It is very well researched and very clear about the investment, the range of technologies, jobs creation potential, etc. The UK has eight regional centres and has a future growth potential over the next 5-10 years.
General Corporate
֎Innovating to Net Zero 2024
Energy Systems Catapult, April 2024.
Reports like this from the ES Catapult show they have come of age. There is so much in here to take away e.g. the UK can achieve an affordable transition with costs within 1% of GDP by 2050, focus on “no regrets” technologies now, the huge need to co-ordinate efforts as we progress across the raft of technologies (see Figure 4 which maps R&D, demonstration, deployment stages of technology, the four scenarios help shape the modelling on possible outcomes (and draws on 400+ technology roadmaps, etc. Underpinning all of this analysis are a raft of skills required across the economy. We can see the Green Jobs Delivery Group incorporating reports like this into their Net Zero Workforce plan.
The Carbon Majors Database: Launch Report
Carbon Majors, April 2024.
A powerful database covering the top corporate entity polluters (oil, gas, coal and cement in the main) across the period 1854-2022, and a subset of 2016-2022. The simple message for us is around focus and impact that can be achieved by single entities taking major action. What would be useful also is to translate these corporate lists into spatial and workforce impacts as corporate adjust (radically in some cases), there are huge changes communities must go through. We know from experience in the UK, the former coalfields are still coming to terms with the loss of their founding industry and employer.
Charting Disruption: Outlook for 2024 and beyond
Global X Management Company, 2024.
We are drawn to two chapters here - (4) An electric future; and (5) Clean tech and beyond - both of which gives a quick overview of the status and uptake of several key technologies for the net zero transition. It shows, using some historic data, the speed at which changes can take place almost unnoticed but the ones that are expected do require significant skills development and application.
Agriculture & Forestry
Extreme weather and its impact on farming viability in Wales
Farmlytics for WWF Cymru, March 2024.
A detailed look at the impact of weather of farming across Wales. We see this a useful good case study as food production and supply will change as weather changes. Now we have this analysis, it would be good to see the Welsh Government translate this into skills and jobs to both help manage the transition and adaptation, and what it means for the Welsh economy.
Agroecological farming: creating a future where people and nature thrive
WWF and Welsh Government, July 2023.
Through a series of six case studies in Wales, the report provides an insight into some of the shifts developing on farms and what this means for the skills and roles of farmers and their colleagues.
Strategic Policy Priorities and Key Asks
NFU Scotland, February 2024.
Conservation and climate change enter here amongst the short list of priorities from the NFU in Scotland. We can’t really read this type of report without having the National Food Strategy in mind, and the huge changes that are needed over the next 25 years.
Nature & Environment
֎Assessing the materiality of nature related financial risks for the UK
Green Finance Institute, Oxford, April 2024.
This is a sobering report which traces the wider links between nature and global GDP (c50%) and which is further added to by the impact of climate change (extreme weather shifts). For the UK this carries a 12% GDP risk impact. For us, this report makes the case for action now, and makes the cost of proactive investment seem small when compared to the potential losses that are foreseen.
National Parks Health Check Report: Nature Recovery
Campaign for National Parks, April 2024.
Our interest here is not just the status of the national parks of England and Wales (not great), but the skills which underpin the assessment, and the whole management of national parks for a carbon neutral future. The need for a workforce plan for nature is now a real need and how competition will be tackled between the various elements of nature, and other sectors.
Wildfire risks to UK landscapes
POST UK Parliament, April 2024.
Climate change is creating the risk and number of wildfires, and this in turn demands a skill response from both those who manage landscapes (foresters, farmers) and the fire service too.
Built Environment
Future Homes and Buildings Standard Consultation
UK100, March 2024.
Homes and buildings standards are critical to driving a reduction in their decarbonisation. Ensuring they are ambitious is key, and at least ensure net zero targets are achieved. We have reviewed multiple responses to the consultation, and there is a consistent theme: the need for ambition, and seeking to achieve high standards. We particularly like the ability of local authorities to be able to make progress through some form of planning enforcement (perhaps along the lines of Scotland using house/building purchase as a trigger for retrofitting). Standards are also another policy tool to drive change and improvement, and need to be built into education and training programmes.
Beyond Foundations: Mainstreaming sustainable solutions to cut emissions from the buildings sector
UNEP and the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction, March 2024.
As one of the ‘big sectors’ responsible for a high proportion of emissions (embedded, construction method, operation), it is important to be able to learn and transfer best practice quickly across the world – especially when 161 countries do not have a clear plan to decarbonise construction and buildings. This report touches on nature-based solutions and it would be good to explore this further in the UK context, and how much timber could become a realistic option, and if the UK will follow the lead being taken by France here.
Achieving resilience in the built environment: Why are we not adapting?
Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction, March 2024.
While this is a globally focused report, it has some very useful frameworks to chart and understand actors and their actions and responsibilities. We could see these being used by local authorities and the Environment Agency and other stakeholders to chart priorities and requirements.
Government resilience: extreme weather
Committee of Public Accounts, House of Commons, April 2024, HC 454.
Coping with extreme weather is a current imperative and requires active management with capability at national and local levels. We think this is a area that is not getting sufficient research and analysis within the context of a national net zero workforce development plan, and should feature in any skills and manpower thinking. One measure we have explored is the level of insurance required for infrastructure and buildings (of all types) and it is reflecting the cost of extreme weather, and perhaps it would be worth tracking such changes as a leading indicator of potential risk.
Circular Economy
The Sustainable Plastics Policy Commission: Key findings for the UK Government
University of Birmingham. 2024.
Hugely important activity being run by the University of Birmingham, and the move to take the current plastics industry and plastics as a material into a circular economy world. The recycling levels and business streams in plastics are very well established (see Figure 9) and are an area of major skills development.
Finance
Financing the green transition. Mobilising investments to accelerate the transition to a carbon-neutral and climate-resilient economy
State of Green, Denmark, December 2023.
While this is a promotional publication, is provides a quick view of what is happening in multiple countries by leveraging finance for green projects. Where the money flows, the jobs follow.
Mission oriented development banks: the case of KfW (Germany) and BNDES (Brazil). Working Paper 2023/13
UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, November 2023.
As every government is seeking ways to fund the net zero transition and generally green investment, here are some case studies that might help. This paper will be published later this year in the Oxford Handbook on Greening Economic Development (due 2024).
Healthcare
Transforming Healthcare: The role of engineering in delivering a net zero health service
Institution of Mechanical Engineers, April 2024.
Shows the potential of crossing over key capabilities from one industry into another, and is a microcosm of the net zero challenge: it requires pooling opportunities and capabilities in a planned, and focused way. The NHS makes progress towards net zero but also provides a market in which solutions can be developed and potentially can be sold elsewhere. It is also worth remembering that the NHS generates around 4% of the UK’s carbon emissions, and over 7% of them for the whole economy.
Heat and Retrofitting
The right time for heat pumps: Decarbonising home heating in a staged retrofit.
Passivhaus Trust, April 2024.
Helpful and practical guide to retrofitting a home and which recognises the core of the issue: heat, its management, and its movement.
The future of the energy company obligation (ECO): Boosting delivery to tackle fuel poverty and upgrade homes
E3G, March 2024.
The ECO seeks to both drive overall home energy efficiency and reduce fuel poverty, and this is helpful status report which shows a distinct lack of progress. We liked the simple chart which captures the range of retrofit options (from DIY to single and multi-measures to deep retrofit) and suggests a range of practical things that can be done and assisted at a local level.
Clean Heat Standards Handbook
RAP, April 2024.
A key part of the jigsaw and very useful for educators and practitioners alike.
Heritage Building Retrofit Toolkit
City of London Corporation, March 2024.
Many parts of the building stock is heritage and covered with multiple restrictions as regards introducing changes. The toolkit is based on London and challenges it faces, but anyone seeking to tackle heritage areas in their city or town will find this useful e.g. the roadmaps and categorisations used.
Transport
Maritime
Oceans of opportunity: Supplying green methanol and ammonia at ports
RMI and Global Maritime Forum, April 2024.
Decarbonisation of the maritime sector is a critical part of the net zero transition, and this report fills in yet another part of that process. While the shift is huge in many sectors, maritime rarely gets the coverage it deserves due to its importance to trade, commuting, and wider international travel.
EVs
Global EV Outlook 2024: Moving towards increased affordability
IEA, April 2024.
For those looking for evidence of the growing demand (and sales) of EVs, the outlook for 2024 covers most key aspects. In 2023, 18% of all cars sold globally were EVs (around 14mn cars) and the main markets are still China (60%), Europe (25%) and the USA (10%). All of the key auto manufacturers have set electrification targets and are investing individually and with partnerships. For skills, with demand now well established for EV, we see skills programmes in place for manufacturing, EV charging installation (most important for trucks and buses), and battery recycling. The trend is now well established but what is not clear is the potential fallout from the ICE to EV transition i.e. which locations will make the transition, which ones will become EV producers (plus the supply chain), and where battery recycling will take place (including re-use of batteries extending their life by 15-20 years).
Ownership of battery electric vehicles is uneven in Norwegian households
Communications Earth and Environment, April 2024.
Fascinating insight into the uptake of EVs in Norway since 2005 and to some extent an experiment for others to learn from. The paper lists out 15 policies implemented since 2005 covering registration, ownership, and infrastructure, some of which have been used in the UK. Accelerating the uptake of EVs is important in all high car-owning countries given the tight time lines being adopted to achieve net zero, and equally important to major auto manufacturers as they make major strategic investment decisions: both have large skills and employment implications.
Accelerating the transition to EVs: The role of green skills and robust charging infrastructure
Economic Graph LinkedIn, September 2023.
While there has been some concern around the sales of EVs (dips in sales at BYD and Tesla for Qtr 1 2024), the overall momentum behind EV manufacture and infrastructure installation is present across multiple countries. Large scale, multi-country tracking is important as the EV industry is emerging and its footprint is potentially quite different to that for ICE vehicles.
Fast-Falling Battery Prices Boost Economic Benefits Expected from Heavy-Duty Vehicles Electrification
Energy Innovation Policy and Technology, February 2024.
Batteries for HGVs are quite different from those used in small EVs in that they push the current battery technology to the limits, they need greater capacity and power, require faster charging, need to operation for greater periods of time (all day in some cases), and need greater thermal management. Interesting, but in the UK, there are c500,000 HGVs and so there is a huge need to know how to manage the HGV transition and support the vehicles when in service. It is also unclear how much hybrid technology will play a role here where hydrogen is probably the prime energy source.
Decarbonizing Last-Mile Delivery: A courier-centred modal shift study
RMI, January 2024.
Another feature of the shift in transport system, and this report draws on data from Seattle, London and Mexico from all stakeholders. Last-mile delivery systems employ c112,000 couriers in the UK across 10,000 business in a market worth c£13bn, and which is a key part of the whole e-commerce market. Helping this part of the logistics system will require its own decarbonisation (electrification) strategy, and we have to wonder what role the businesses making extensive users of couriers will have to do to help couriers and their charging requirements.
Fit for a changing climate? Adapting the UK’s transport system.
Department for Transport, 2024.
Consultation documents like this one are useful summaries of the current status and future direction of developments for transport. Two takeaways for us: the adaptation action timeline for transport (page 61), and the repeated theme of a shift in mindset and culture across the whole transport system. We will be interested to see the responses to the consultation and what the various stakeholders make of the DfT’s thinking and intentions.