Heating up the Workforce Challenge

HPA’s latest report lays out the UK’s heat pump workforce challenge in no uncertain terms.

As is our habit, The Green Edge has been poring over the Heat Pump Association’s latest workforce report, and it’s clear that the race to decarbonise heating in the UK isn’t just a matter of technology. It’s a workforce-sized Rubik’s cube. With heating accounting for 17% of the UK’s carbon emissions, heat pumps are slated to take centre stage in slashing emissions—if we can build the workforce to install and maintain them. And that’s a big “if.”

As of 2023, the UK had a heat pump workforce of just over 4,500 full-time equivalents (FTEs), including only about 2,000 Heat Pump Technical Operatives (HPTOs)—the skilled hands fitting and maintaining the units. This pales in comparison to what’s needed to hit the ambitious installation targets.

The report outlines two scenarios. First, under current policies the projection is for more than 435,700 heat pump installations annually by 2028, needing around 29,500 FTE roles. That’s over six times the current workforce.

The second is even bigger: the stretch target means achieving 600,000 annual installations by 2028 and 1.6 million by 2035, which demands a staggering 41,000 FTEs by 2028, scaling to over 122,600 by 2035.

Stretch Target Scenario. Image: HPA.

And the skills bottleneck isn’t combined to just a few different job types. The heat pump installation process demands a diverse array, from salespeople and administrators to a whole range of more technical roles in groundwork, plumbing and heating, electrical, and the workings of the heat pumps themselves. Two roles in particular dominate the requirements: Heat Pump Technical Operatives HPTOs) and Plumbing and Heating Technical Operatives (PHTOs), which together account for more than 70% of the workforce.

Overall workforce projections. Image: HPA.

All of this means that the demand for training is likely to be akin to a plunge of gannets over a bait ball of sardines. Granted, training rates are increasing—7,856 individuals qualified in 2023 alone—but nowhere near fast enough to meet the stretch scenario. To hit the 2035 target, we’d need to train well over ten thousand people annually—consistently—each year up to 2035. Even more challenging? Retention. Currently, just 61% of those trained actively work in the sector, highlighting the need to not just train but keep workers engaged.

Overall workforce projections. Image: HPA.

Retrofit installations of older homes—of which replacing fossil-fuel boilers with heat pumps is but one part—are where the real work lies. Labour-intensive and technically complex, retrofits make up the lion’s share of the projected market, growing to 80% of installations by 2035 in the stretch scenario. New builds, while important, are far easier to equip with heat pumps. They’ll see a short-lived spike when the Future Homes Standard kicks in but will plateau post-2028.

So, retrofitting the UK’s homes isn’t just tough on materials—it’s tough on skills, requiring operatives who understand the quirks of aging building stock. And, given the general consensus across this and many other industries that labour shortages loom large, a reliance on retraining gas engineers—a workforce that’s aging itself—carries its own risks.

Training bottlenecks could also derail progress. While current rates might cover the current policy scenario, the ramp-up required for the stretch targets is steep, potentially overwhelming the sector’s capacity.

Then there’s policy instability. The spectre of sudden shifts in government priorities—be it slashing subsidies or changing regulations—could shake industry confidence and scare off investors.

Geography matters too. Urban centres might soak up skilled workers, leaving rural areas with sporadic access to qualified installers. And even if we do manage to train an army of operatives, global supply chain constraints—on heat pump components and specialised materials—could mean those skilled hands have nothing to work on.

Finally, public perception. Heat pumps have a PR problem. Misconceptions about efficiency and cost, paired with the high upfront investment, risk putting off the very homeowners the transition depends on. Without better consumer awareness, all the skills in the world won’t matter if people aren’t buying heat pumps.

So, what’s the fix? The Heat Pump Association lays out a plan, and it all seems to make eminent sense to us. Sustained, scaled-up training is step one, alongside support for industry-led apprenticeships and retraining schemes. But we need to go further. Policy stability, streamlined retrofit processes, and robust public engagement campaigns to debunk myths and boost adoption are non-negotiables.

The maintenance sector also can’t be ignored. By 2035, with millions of heat pumps in service, upkeep will drive workforce demand, making the HPTO role even more critical.

We’re watching this space closely. The heat pump challenge isn’t just about reducing emissions—it’s a green skills litmus test for the UK. If we get this right, it’s a chance to reshape the workforce for a net-zero future. If not—well, let’s not go there.