The Green Edge Reports Roundup, Aug-22
Continuing with our selection of reports and other publications from this month’s reading list.
Loads to read again this month. Here we go…
Skills needs in selected occupations over the next 5-10 years
RAND Europe for the Department for Education, April 2022 (released August 2022)
Interestingly, this report picks up strongly on the greening of occupations, but it becomes clear that ‘greening’ refers primarily to skilled trades to handle green power products and infrastructure, heat pumps, electric vehicle changing, smart homes, modern methods of construction (including wood), with the objective of maximising sustainability and the achievement of net zero goals. Skills related to sustainability cut across all of the occupational groups examined: science and technology; managers, skilled trades; and in health. So, ‘green’ is used here to mean the application of a technology, whereas ‘sustainability’ is used to apply to a process and broader “green” decisions.
The report also covers digital, but doesn’t raise the importance of computational thinking which is critical in taking real world problems and translating them into numeric data to develop a solution.
UK Green Skills Report
Linkedin Economic Graph, March 2022
This is an interesting short report based on UK members of LinkedIn, where it makes the bold statement: “The UK is a world leader in green skills and has high green skills penetration across the economy relative to global competitors.” It’s surprising no UK politician has leapt on this statement.
As ever the devil is in the detail. Here we find a methodology, Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) developed by Di Mo, Senior Lead Statistician at Chime, which extracts unique skills and then applies a weighting scheme analogous to the Term Frequency. Each skill is given a weighted score for each emerging job based on two factors: how likely a skill is added by members in this job on their profile, and how likely a skill is added by members in any job. The more often a skill is added by members across a wide range of jobs, the lower the weight of the skill. This approach can also be used to view the relatedness between jobs and the possible pathways for progression. How the LinkedIn-derived green taxonomy matches with the ESCO one released in March 2022 would be very useful to know (it includes 381 skills, 185 knowledge concepts, and 5 transversal skills).
Having said this, it does create a useful insight into the greening of jobs across the UK economy and by sector. It also highlights green jobs over non-green ones as regards recruitment, a supply-demand imbalance, and global imbalance in green skills development between high- and middle-income countries versus low-income ones. For the UK it points to three areas for action: greater connectedness between education and training providers and employers; a need for local discretion to handle unique local differences to the national average (a call for further devolution?); and the constant issue of systemic inequalities in the overall skills system which are further evident as green skills become more important.
Making Net-Zero Aviation Possible: An industry-backed 1.5°C-aligned transition strategy.
Mission Possible Partnership, July 2022
A current review of the options and pathways for aviation which gives anyone interested in the skills and jobs changes likely in aviation a structure and timetable to work to. The whole Mission Possible Partnership is focused on those sectors most difficult to decarbonise: transport (aviation, shipping, and trucking) and heavy industry (steel, aluminium, cement, and chemicals). The framework used is a model for others to build on when considering the elements and options for their businesses’ and sectors’ decarbonise pathway.
Energy Intensive Industries: Review of the scheme to provide relief to energy intensive industries for a proportion of the indirect costs of funding renewable electricity prices.
Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy, August 2022
Energy Intensive Industries (EII) make up a group of about 300 companies which employ 60,000-200,000 (depending on the definition used), support up to 800,000 jobs and contribute £15bn to the UK’s GDP. They also lie at the heart of industrial decarbonisation and are being forced to radically rethink their core processes.
EII businesses are having to pay for rising energy costs. Each EII sector and location requires a detailed transition plan, and could probably learn a lot from the North Sea Transition Authority’s approach. Across the EII there are notable examples of significant progress e.g. in Tata Steel, CEMEX, Ibstock Bricks and others.
“Science and Technology Superpower”: More than a slogan?
House of Lords Science and Technology Committee, HL Paper 47, August 2022
While we don’t directly follow science and technology strategy and policy, it is important to note, as this report does, that the energy, environment, and climate change technologies is one of the seven families of technologies at the focus of the UK Innovation Strategy. Plus, the Office for Science and Technology Strategy (OSTS), has the sustainable environment (including net zero) as one of its four focus areas.
Skills do get a mention in this report but will be a main focus for the next inquiry by this committee. We hope this inquiry breaks down the allocation of science and technology talent deployed across the UK and shows the amount devoted to green and sustainable technologies.
Surging energy prices in Europe in the aftermath of the war: how to support the vulnerable and speed up the transition away from fossil fuels
IMF WP/22/12, July 2022
In the fifth section of this paper, which also formed the core of a short IMF blog, we find a graphic illustration of value of managing the transition to reducing fossil fuel use. The shift in balances, and the focus of investment highlights the importance of network and storage investment, and so is a forward indicator of where skills are needed. It would be good to see a similar analysis for the UK translating this into skills and jobs.
It is also clear from this analysis that Government action will quickly have to switch from subsidising domestic energy consumption to raising domestic energy efficiency and conservation, as current energy prices are likely to remain high to 2024. The Government approach might be to mandate the energy industry to ensure domestic energy usage is reduced by 10-15% per year, and for government to fund the reduction. This approach leaves a lasting benefit and immediate gain. To view the scale of the issue, take a look at Professor Donald Hirsch's recent report on the cost-of-living crisis in the UK.
Energy Pricing and the Future of the Energy Market
House of Commons Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy Committee, HC 236, July 2022
Buried at the end of this detailed report is Figure 6: Home Energy Efficiency Installations, 2010-2050 which tells the story of a stop-start approach to domestic energy efficiency, and how the high levels of efficiency measures of 2010-12 fell away. Repeated calls have been made for the UK to return to the level achieved in 2012. From a manpower planning and skilled development point of view, the chart shows it’s hard to plan for the green workforce of the future. ‘The market’ alone will not help in achieving the energy efficiency levels required in our homes.
Local Skills Improvement Plans. Statutory Guidance for the Development of a Local Skills Improvement Plan.
Department for Education, August 2022
A key document for generating local skills analyses and plans, and directly linked to two key DfE bodies: the Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education (IfATE), and the Unit for Future Skills (UFS). We feel it would be useful if BEIS could have an input here too, at least ensuring that the priority sectors for the current UK’s Innovation Strategy are covered.
Likewise, given the priority placed upon achieving net zero, it would be useful to ensure all such plans make reference to green economy plans and thinking. A number of reports we have reviewed clearly make extensive coverage of the green economy, and the skills for the transition, but this could be boosted further by making reference statutory.
How metro mayors can help level up England
Institute for Government, June 2022
This report makes the case for greater devolution around transport, skills, and green infrastructure.
The Green Edge has talked about the importance of what is done locally rather than nationally, in our recent posts on UK100 and Liverpool City Region . We’ve seen many local cases where net zero will only be achieved with an active and direct role of local government and city region mayors.
Building decarbonization: how electric heat pumps could help reduce emissions today and going forward.
McKinsey, Electric Power and Natural Gas Practice, July 2022
This is the sort of short document to be shared with those wanting to know more about heat pumps and their potential. It indicates the potential roles that could be played by manufacturers, building owners, electric utilities, and investors. As you’d expect of a McKinsey document, it’s well crafted and some useful charts which are helpful for communicating some key points.
Long COVID and the labour market
IFS Briefing Note BN246, July 2022
An important report that finds there are 110,000 people missing from work every day as a result of long Covid. Currently, 2mn people have long Covid. 72% have limited impact on their lives, but 21% say they suffer a lot. 1 in 10 have stopped working.
We need to view this labour market contraction alongside the overall reduction of 1mn (as we heard from Tony Wilson, Director of IES). We are interested in this as to the likely impact on the availability to fulfil the new and emerging green jobs. At the moment there is no overall green manpower plan that might show where the constraints might develop as a result of this huge labour market contraction.
Nature-based solutions: rhetoric or reality?
House of Lords Science and Technology Committee, HL Paper 147, January 2022
This report comes to a very simple and definite conclusion: the UK does not have the capacity or skillsets to deliver nature-based solutions to both adapt and mitigate climate change at scale. The groups lacking skills are seen as farmers, local authorities and land managers (amongst others) while the skills they lack include surveying, monitoring, verifying, carbon accountancy, forestry, ecology, and planning for nature-based solutions.
DEFRA and the DfE are working together to identify the specific gaps and how best address them. We will report on anything coming from this work.
Workers’ perceptions of climate change and the green transition in Yorkshire and Humberside: Building the evidence base for the just transition in the region
Leeds University Business School, December 2021
One of the few studies collecting data from workers having to tackle green jobs issues around their perception and valuing of ‘green jobs’ through to climate change. Provides further useful data at a regional level for understanding the complexity of making an inclusive and just transition to net zero.
Decarbonizing Grocery
McKinsey, July 2022
We all know in general that food is a major source of carbon emissions, but this timely note illustrates the point through a number of powerful graphics. See in particular Exhibit 2 which shows that 84.8% of grocery’s emissions are Scope 3 (58.6% upstream, 26.2% downstream); and Exhibit 4 which charts the value of a major food category against their emissions. Unsurprisingly, diary and meat stand out for the high emissions.
On the employment and skills side this report reinforces the huge shift of employees’ attention to reducing emissions in multiple businesses, and the very significant behavioural shift of consumers. The report is helpful as context for anyone examining green skills and jobs in the wider grocery sector.
Battery strategy goes flat: net-zero targets at risk
House of Lords Science and Technology Committee, HL Paper 53, July 2021
Highlights the scale of skills challenge to meet the needs of battery and fuel cell development most notably around the education and training of electro-chemists. In the auto sector it highlights the scale of retraining required: 10,000 in 2021; 50,000 by 2025; and 100,000 by 2035. While part of this rise in demand for skilled engineering staff is eased by the Global Talent Visa scheme it is not without its complications and costs, such as one-off fees and the annual health care surcharge.
Key Strategies for Mitigating Methane Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste
Rocky Mountain Institute, Carbon Mapper, and Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information Systems, July 2022
Methane often gets forgotten when reducing emissions are discussed and transition plans are developed. This practical report provides some useful case studies and identifies the five main areas to tackle to reduce methane emissions: food waste prevention; organic waste diversion; dump site rehabilitation; landfill design and operation; and comprehensive emissions monitoring and quantification.
From a skills and employment point of view, these five areas potentially create new skills demands, usually in specialist businesses. But the first two areas around waste reduction and separation is also a consumer and citizen behaviour change, and runs along the whole of the food supply chain.
Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-6) for Youth
UN Environmental Programme, 2021
One for those involved in careers advice and guidance, and wanting to bring environmental options into students’ thinking about future career choices. Availability in both a static and interactive format. We feel this could be modified for UK use at national and/or regional levels. The messages covered also have implications for curriculum content and development.
A fairer energy system for families and the climate
TUC, July 2022
Energy is regulated in the UK and there are developments seeking to re-shape the market in the light of recent rapid price increases. There are also multiple reports seeking to decarbonise domestic dwellings along with the rest of the economy, showing the scale of the effort required, the levels of investment, and the significant role of the government. There is a case to be made therefore for the re-nationalisation of energy.
Leaving politics aside, one could argue that energy is becoming decentralised as more and more individual households and workplaces will become microgenerators and lessen the grip of the major generators, wholesalers, and distributors.
In Communications Engineering, No 1, Article 17, August 1st, 2022 by Zhibin Yu et al
Link and also see Glasgow University where the research was undertaken.
We don’t usually cover specific developments in green technology, but we thought this one was worth highlighting as it shows the potential to improve the performance of standard heat pumps with a minor set of modifications using standard components.
New York’s New Jobs Engine
tech:nyc and Centre for an Urban Future, July 2022
Yes, this is an update on digital technology-based businesses, but it begs a few questions: the enabling environment created by the digital technology ecosystem in New York to allow other sectors to take on the opportunities offered by digital technologies; and how does the digital technology play a role in the city’s drive to achieve net zero?
It would be useful to see how London, for example, is manging its green transition, and what the dependencies there are having a string digital technology base, and how the skills move from one sector to the other. Also see the Green Alliance report, Smart and Green (October 2020).
How ‘materials transition’ can support the net zero agenda
McKinsey, July 2022
Looks at cement, steel, plastics, and steel, and maps the 70 breakthrough projects across Europe (26 in chemicals; 21 for hydrogen in steel; 15 carbon capture ones in cement; and 11 for alternative energy and carbon capture in petrochemicals). This is probably an underestimate as certainly in the UK only two projects are highlighted in chemicals, and there are certainly more than that involving hydrogen in chemicals manufacture. Given the time periods charted here (2022 to 2050), it means there is the opportunity to map the skills transition too, and match this to the sector analysis of the Climate Change Committee.
Schools built for the future
TUC, July 2022
A timely publication given the recent energy price increases and with most schools seeking to settle their future energy costs before the next school year begins. On the jobs front this report estimates there are 42,000 to be created by retrofitting schools (all 26,000 of them) split between directly working on site, with the rest in the supply chain over a 10-year period. Note: these jobs estimates do not include the changes in role required within schools (and MATs) as they develop internal capacity to manage their energy proactively, and which marks their shift from simple purchasers of energy to actively managing their energy demand, generation, export and potentially, storage. There are also opportunities for schools to become part of local area heat networks.
Not reports but interesting anyway…
Defining and Measuring Green Jobs
ONS, August 2022
The ONS is running a consultation, funded by the Treasury, on the definition and measurement of green jobs. It is important that ONS produces green economy and jobs data that we can all use to track green policies. We suggest that you make a submission using the link to the online consultation forms – it is a quick and focused consultation set of questions.
Scotsman Green Skills Conference
October 4th, 2022, at the COSLA Conference Centre in Edinburgh
We think it’s good to see this conference back. It would be also good to see it used as a model for City Regions and Regions across England, as well as the other devolved nations.
This conference, to be hosted by Professor Dave Reay, Director of the Edinburgh Climate Change Institute and Policy Director of ClimateXChange, will explore how Scotland will achieve their targets from the Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan by tackling some key themes:
Tech support in green skills
Nature-based solutions
Trailblazing initiative from the energy sector
How we are supporting the talent pipeline
Transport
Heat decarbonisation
Local Skills Dashboards
Unit for Future Skills, Department for Education, August 2022
Not a report but the sharing of a prototype dashboard by the DfE’s Unit for Future Skills. This is of interest to anyone working at LEP/City Region level.
And finally…
The Retrofit London Housing Action Plan
Etude, Elementa and RAFT for London Councils, July 2021, Link
London Councils: Pathway Report
Parity Projects for London Councils, July 2021, Link
Green Homes Grant Voucher Scheme
NAO, October 2021, Link
These three reports are best taken together, giving a detailed view of the task ahead and key learnings from previous interventions. The reports on London provide a borough-by-borough analysis of the housing stock, energy ratings (Energy Performance Certificate status), the costs of achieving EPC Level B, and achieving net zero. They also includes detailed consideration of the workforce requirements across 8 occupations and the FTE numbers: 33,000 at the peak in 2030, down to 13,000 in 2050. While the cost per household is in the £12,000-£30,000 range (two levels of cost: to achieve EPC B by 2030 and then net zero), when considered across 3.78mn domestic dwellings this gives a total cost of £98bn. By far the greatest CO2 reductions come from loft and wall insulation before even getting to heat pumps, solar hot water systems, and photovoltaic arrays.
“A flexible heat pump cycle for heat recovery”
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