A dip into the BEV skills value chain
There are 30+ major battery elecric vehicle (BEV) manufacturers in Western countries and another 30+ in China. As new entrants come into the market, what will be the effect on the skills value chain?
This week, Green Edge has been taking a look at recent research into the future of the battery electric vehicle (BEV) skills value chain. What strikes us most is that the skills are not yet stable, with many roles at all levels being required to make operational delivery while at the same time integrating new, or changing, technologies. So we see skills shifts concurrent with technology and mindset shifts - always a challenge.
Here are some general observations:
Projections for employment, occupations and skills tend to rest on a single future scenario, which is more of the same but BEV-based. Hybrid scenarios (pun acknowledged but not intended), looking at different combinations of potential developments from the innovation pipeline, tend not to be considered.
Overall, the whole auto industry is undergoing major technology and commercial change on nearly all fronts. Production of electric-based energy systems is just one of them, but this tends to dominate the discussion rather than considering the whole supply chain and ecosystem around e-mobility.
That said, we do see some evidence of emphasis shifting from the actual production of BEVs towards the infrastructure and the end-of-life use of car batteries, together with different models of car ownership and use.
The main challenge we see right now is not about defining the skills and occupations but more about their numbers, their locations, and where they sit in the whole ecosystem. This being the case, we were surprised to see so many reports coming out over the last couple of years that still talk in generalities about the demand for skills for the jobs that exist right now.
We now see a number of specialist recruitment companies focusing just on the BEV sector.
Many reports tend to treat batteries as just being batteries and do not reflect how they vary. There are multiple lithium-based batteries and there is a major research effort - paralleled by research into improving electric motor efficiencies - into find ways of reducing battery costs, increasing power, and finding new materials to reduce dependency from potentially unstable countries.
Alternative business models (e.g. pop-up manufacturing operations, plug-in/replacement batteries systems) are still in operation and are generally well-funded. The pop-up factory model in particular changes the whole location discussion around centralising battery production.
The shift in skill sets within the more traditional parts of the auto industry means there is significant competition for scarce skills, notably software engineering. By far the biggest shift in the content of BEV is the huge increase in the use of software - a Boeing 787 has 18 million lines of software code while a modern premium BEV has between 100 and 150 million lines. Future vehicles are projected to have in excess of 300 million lines, a major driver being the move towards the fully connected, self-drive car. This development alone has led to the emergence of new geographies for the industry, as well as changes in the list of major players.
The BEV market is obviously growing very fast. With 30+ major BEV manufacturers in Western countries and another 30+ in China, there are around 100 current models on the market. Meanwhile, we see a host of new entrants into specialist areas like electric last-mile delivery trucks and from these it’s fascinating to see the range of manufacturing strategies being deployed, from giga- to micro-factories. We will continue to watch closely at the skills implications as these things develop.
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