2023 in review
As we draw towards the close of the year, we present part one of our roundup of the last (almost) twelve months.
As we draw toward the close of 2023, The Green Edge has just celebrated its second birthday. Over the course of the last two years, in our self-appointed mission to document the ‘skilling up for Net Zero’ we’ve spoken to hundreds of people, reviewed hundreds (and hundreds) of reports and blogs, and attended numerous events. We’ve written more than 150 posts and recorded over 70 podcasts. We hope this has given us a fair degree of feel for what is - and is not - happening at national and local levels, and likewise across sectors and occupations. We think many of the skills questions around the “wheres”, the “whiches” and the “how manys” have now been largely answered, at least for the core roles that will deliver much of the transition to Net Zero over the next 10 years or so. The many studies we’ve seen at local, sector and occupational levels provide the detail for a clear, pragmatic national Net Zero Workforce Plan, the prime task of the Green Jobs Delivery Group. We can see the work being put into this process and have had the privilege of talking to a few of the people who are doing that work. Equally, we can see the rafts of local studies over the last few years translating into policies and actions to seize the net zero agenda and make it work for communities, their towns, and their cities.
But, at the same time we also see the clear struggle to adjust and update legacy systems and approaches to education, skills development, competence-based qualifications, and assessment. Alongside this, there is the struggle around the nature of devolution between central and local government, despite clear evidence that placed-based policies and leadership are critical to both economic and social progress, and to ensure Net Zero is delivered in a co-ordinated, integrated, socially just, and value-for-money way. Movements are taking place, but too slowly and without the commensurate levels of funding that are truly needed. What the ‘local’ component brings is creativity: to maximise the impact of the funds available; and to engage local populations. Without citizen engagement and motivation, we will never address some of the biggest net zero challenges, from domestic heating to the wider consumer behaviour around lifestyle choices related to things like diet, travel, and resource management.
We’ve found some of the strategic decisions made by the Westminster Government to be truly perplexing. Offshore wind strike pricing, now looking to be resolved for the next round of licencing; the phase out of ICE vehicles and the phase in of EVs, while keeping the Zero Emissions Vehicles (ZEV) Mandate in place; the delay in reforms to domestic heating while - equally contradictorily - retaining the Clean Heat Market Mechanism; and the glacial speed of progressing the Resources and Waste Strategy, originally published in 2018.
If we were asked to sum up our view in a cliché, we’d say the stage is set for Net Zero, but some key parts of the script are missing. And one of those missing parts is the full engagement of central government: it owns the compass and, to a great extent, the roadmap; it has the potential to harness the market and to provide the navigation through incentives, penalties, and mandates. It steers the route to hit the milestones. It needs to get better at it.
Another key part of the script still to be written is the workforce. From what we can see, the Green Jobs Delivery Group is – rightly, we think – focusing on the real short- to medium-term challenges around power generation, distribution, and the shifting nature of energy demand. But we need to look further. Building a Net Zero workforce is a long term project, way beyond the lifetime of current administrations. It requires a reboot of thinking around education and training at all levels.
People’s jobs are changing. Major shifts in the content and levels of responsibility are taking place, partly driven by technology, partly by an ageing population demanding increased services, by changing trading requirements and opportunities, and by increasing focus on work-life balance. The flows of investment in people – from school and throughout their working lives – are, in our view, too low to build capacity, not just for the immediate decade ahead but for a sustainable future beyond that.
What are the other parts of the Net Zero script that need to be written, or at least proof-read, rehearsed and made ready for performance? Well, alongside the parts we’ve already mentioned, there’s R&D and innovation, industry collaboration, certification and recognition, awareness, outreach and community engagement, policy and regulation, adaptation, and international collaboration. These are the pillars for a sustainable world, and they all need to be built properly.
Another big part is visibility of progress – or otherwise. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) makes its annual progress reports, of course. We think it would be a step forward, though, if the CCC could look at the City Regions and Combined Authorities in the same way as it does for the devolved nations. Further, it would be good to see the CCC do this alongside the National Audit Office (NAO) and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). We need to see the progress to-date and the challenge ahead, with a translation into the required re-shaping of the boundaries of devolved power. By doing this, we can envisage the funding streams being more effective through local ownership and management.
Overall, are we optimistic? When we look at what’s going on at local levels, we see enough evidence of progress and momentum to be guardedly so. We see enough alignment of local political leaders with their colleagues in creating policies, plans and actions to give Net Zero a fighting chance. We might point to the CDP Cities A List of 2023 where the UK has 24 of the 119 cities listed. We also see 500 UK corporations with Net Zero targets in SBTi’s Corporate Net-Zero Standard. Meanwhile, from our own work on The Green Edge, we’ve witnessed the numbers engaging with Chris Skidmore’s Mission Zero review; we’ve been to numerous well-attended meetings of passionate, well-qualified people working on projects and in businesses with collaborations and networks.
And, in 2023, we feel honoured to have been part of it, albeit small. We’ve seen The Green Edge grow daily, both in subscribers and through open access visits. Our podcast is listened to in more than 50 countries. This indicates to us in real terms that there is a growing community, committed to Net Zero and beyond that to the restoration of a sustainable world.
Highlights (and lowlights) of 2023
January
The Skidmore Review opens the year with its ten missions across which competence and community engagement are intertwined.
One underlying message is the solutions are known, but the challenge is to mobilise investment and build political alignment. Each of the missions are being progressed; so far we’ve seen them for local and retrofitting, with others to follow across renewable energy and the grid to nature, R&D and innovation.
Incidentally, the review also bookended the year in November with its publication in book form. We await the sequel.
March
Government delivers a Net Zero paperwork mountain of 3,000 pages.
Later, in September, the PM ‘recommits’ to a ‘fairer’ Net Zero, with some commentators crying ‘U turn’, ‘playing politics’ or perhaps even hinting that Net Zero might be delayed.
May
The English Local Skills Improvement Plans (LSIPs) are published, providing an information base of mixed quality to (hopefully) inform local priorities and kickstart coherent and co-ordinated skills delivery through the nation’s FE colleges.
Some LSIPs – like Surrey – used the LSIPs to make ‘green’ deep dives, while others – like Liverpool City Region and Manchester – had done them previously through other routes. Other LSIP deep dives focused on specific green sectors, like retrofit in the South West and offshore wind in Cumbria.
June
Debate in the Upper House about the Government’s industrial strategy (we’ve had eleven over the last dozen years or so) and various calls through the year for a refresh to – among other things – capture the role of green investment to drive growth and development, realise the opportunities for the UK, and develop our position to export Net Zero solutions around the world.
Labour responds in September with its own version, together with the bold statement that ‘economic growth is not in tension with net zero targets’.
A reclassification and cross-sector analysis of skills across the UK, done by the Royal Academy of Engineering, shows the importance and scale of engineering by allocating engineering capabilities across the critical areas of R&D (research, develop, evaluate); practical application (deploy, deliver); and support and other roles. To us, this looks much like the splits others have found in their studies of the Industrial Revolution, with its inventors, tweakers, and implementers.
August
The Green Jobs Delivery Group (GJDG) delivers. Or, at least, it delivers its Summer Update, which informed us that the Group ‘is focused on the creation of a Net Zero and Nature Workforce Action Plan…for publication in the first half of 2024’.
To provide grist for GJDG’s mill, nearly every sector has now produced a detailed report on its green skills and employment requirements. The core occupations for the Net Zero journey are well described and charted. We are becoming better and better informed of the direction, scale, and some of the nuances around interdependencies, waves of change, and the still-emerging roles of technologies like AI and automation.
We look forward to the publication of the plan. Having talked to one or two of GJDG members over the course of the year, we’re cautiously optimistic that it will prove to be pragmatic, with a common approach across the various green (and greening) sectors, taking into account the interdependencies between the sectors and the expected phasing in of developments along the road to 2050.
September
ONS declares three approaches to measuring the numbers of green jobs in the UK – by industries, by occupations and by firms – and makes (experimental) estimates using each approach. By each approach, the numbers of green jobs are growing, and particularly when job holders are asked about their views of their own roles.
October
After pondering on skills taxonomies through the summer, DfE takes the development of a skills classification for the UK a step forward. We look forward to it moving from scoping and justification to delivery, perhaps along the lines of the datasets we’ve already seen for many years in the likes of O*NET and ESCO.
Local Area Energy Plans (LAEPs) start to show their value by combining detailed plans and actions to achieve Net Zero with the workforce capacity and skills required. We look forward to these being integrated into local skills plans.
December and beyond
National projections compared against historical trends can highlight major challenges ahead. Labour market and skills projections published by DfE’s Unit for Future Skills in March shows a projected increase in the UK labour market of around 2.5 million between now and 2035. On the flip side of the coin, we read in July that the current UK labour market is currently short of around a million people and is only growing at around 70,000 per year. When it comes to skills, the picture becomes even more alarming when we read that ‘even before the pandemic, the UK was forecast by 2030 to have 2.5 million more high-skilled jobs than there were people with high skills, and three million fewer low-skilled jobs than low-skilled workers.
UK Employment by Industry Group 2015-2035. Image TGE from data DfE/UFS. Numbers in thousands.
Another report we’ve just received also makes some stark conclusions, including occupational polarisation and a ‘hollowing out’ of middle-paid jobs, a decline in manufacturing jobs in some regions, and the ongoing suction effect of London and the South East for ‘high-end’ jobs. Overall, we see a huge degree of occupational churn taking place between now and 2035. The result? More and more demand for skills development, vocational education, and training.
Finally, coming right at the close of 2023 we have the final report from the Resolution Foundation’s Economy 2030 Inquiry. Its headline conclusion:
The UK has great strengths, but is a decade and a half into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was straining the living standards of low- and middle-income Britain well before the cost of living crisis struck. [It] is time to embark on a new path.
Source: Resolution Foundation
We’ll leave the mainstream media to beat their collective breasts about what they will no doubt tell us is the awfulness of it all. Instead, here’s our Green Edge green spin on the Inquiry’s recommendations for ending Britain’s stagnation:
Build on Britain’s services heritage and make it a major exporter of sustainability services to the world;
(Continue to) build world-class capabilities in sustainability-focused disciplines like High Value Manufacturing and Design for Planet;
Deliver capabilities like these from Centres of Competence across the UK – not just London – and provide education and training to local people to take advantage of the good work on offer;
Invest in a proper green future and don’t dress up brown as green;
Find mechanisms to engage local populations and workers in local business sustainability efforts, while diluting the pressure from disengaged shareholders to prioritise profit over all else;
Link everyone into sustainability practices by not only helping them to understand their responsibilities, but by helping them to understand the opportunities too!
Move sustainability away from the realm of the big state and into the case for devolution, where funds – not least those for sustainability – can be better managed;
We may no longer be part of Europe, but don’t throw the baby out with the bath water – for sustainability, we can still learn much from Europe, as well as the rest of the world.
Our 2023 long reads
…and finally, a few books that have sparked our interest and widened our thinking this year. For your Christmas stockings, perhaps…
Five Times Faster: Rethinking the Science, Economics and Diplomacy of Climate Change by Simon Sharpe. Cambridge University Press.
Blue Machines: How the Ocean Shapes Our World by Helen Czerski. Torva/WW Norton.
Cobalt Red: How the Blood of the Congo Powers Our Lives by Siddharth Kara. St Martin’s Press/Macmillan
Legacy: How to Build the Sustainable Economy by Dieter Helm. Cambridge University Press.
